[Sep 13, 2026 (Sun)] KBO Analysis LG @ Samsung Preview - BeaverStats

Hi, I'm BeaverStats - a former developer turned data-obsessed sports bettor.

I run a site analyzing KBO data, and here's a quick breakdown of one game.

KBO analysis is basically my full-time focus these days.

Quick preview of LG @ Samsung (Sep 13, 2026 (Sun)).

*Lineups aren't confirmed yet! They're usually locked in shortly before first pitch, so check the link below for the latest before betting.

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You can see the full, more detailed data on the game list.

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09/13 LG @ Samsung

LG starting pitcher: Lim Chan-gyu Samsung starting pitcher: Choi Won-tae

3rd-place LG (55.6%) visits 2nd-place Samsung (60.7%). Recent form is split - LG just won its last game, Samsung just lost its last one - and the season series is nearly even at 7-8 vs. 8-7.

Choi Won-tae's form is the standout in this matchup. Lim Chan-gyu has a 4.14 ERA over 139 innings this season, and on the road - tonight's assignment - his FIP is 4.12, right in line with his season number; his last-5-start FIP has improved to 3.75, though with BABIP (.275) and LOB% (76.5%) both running better than his season marks, some of that improvement looks luck-assisted. Choi has a 4.37 ERA over 113.1 innings, and at home - tonight's situation for him - his ERA looks great at 3.79, but FIP is actually a bit worse at 4.41, and his LOB% (78.2% vs. a 71% season mark) suggests some of that shiny home ERA is luck too. That said, his last-5-start numbers (3.12 FIP, 25.5% K-BB% versus a 14.3% season mark) point to a real jump in stuff, though an extreme 88.7% strand rate over that stretch means the results look even better than the underlying improvement alone would suggest.

Head-to-head, Lim is 7.08 ERA / 4.36 FIP against Samsung across 4 starts (20.1 IP) - both results and process are bad, so even with a small sample this looks like it could be a genuine bad matchup. Choi is 1.5 ERA against LG over 2 starts (12 IP), but his FIP there is a much worse 4.29, with BABIP (.257) and LOB% (79.4%) both working in his favor - worth watching whether that holds given it's just 2 starts.

Both lineups remain unconfirmed, so this reflects the most recent game. At the team level, LG has cooled slightly (wOBA .346 to .326 over the last 5 games) while Samsung has cooled more (.354 to .299). Individually, though, Samsung's Choi Hyoung-woo (5-for-11 against Lim) and Diaz (4-for-9) have real sample size behind clearly good numbers, so Samsung's lineup still has teeth even in a cold stretch.

The bullpens clearly favor Samsung - a 3.82 ERA over the last 10 games versus LG's 6.64 - and LG has burned through a lot of arms recently (13.3 IP across 12 pitchers).

In summary, Choi's recent form and Samsung's bullpen stability are real strengths, but both his home ERA and his mark against LG look partly luck-inflated, so this may not be as lopsided as it appears on the surface. The biggest swing factor tonight is probably whether Lim can finally break his rough history against Samsung, and whether LG's already-taxed bullpen can hold up late.