[Sep 18, 2026 (Fri)] KBO Analysis LG @ KT Preview - BeaverStats

Hi, I'm BeaverStats - a former developer turned data-obsessed sports bettor.

I run a site analyzing KBO data, and here's a quick breakdown of one game.

KBO analysis is basically my full-time focus these days.

Quick preview of LG @ KT (Sep 18, 2026 (Fri)).

*Lineups aren't confirmed yet! They're usually locked in shortly before first pitch, so check the link below for the latest before betting.

The screenshots below are captured straight from the site's data.

You can see the full, more detailed data on the game list.

This post was analyzed/written by AI based on data from beaverstats.com. Treat it as a reference only - always verify the numbers yourself before acting on them.

9/18 LG Twins vs KT Wiz

LG Twins starting pitcher: Anders Tolhurst KT Wiz starting pitcher: Logan Allen

KT enters tonight on an 8-game win streak and sits atop the league at 62.3%, while LG is third at 56.7% on a 4-game streak of their own. This season's head-to-head clearly favors KT too, at 10-5 (67%).

The starting pitching matchup is the headline story tonight. Logan Allen's 2.97 season ERA looks like ace-level production on the surface, but his FIP sits at 3.88 - a significant gap. That gap widens specifically at home, where he's starting tonight: his home ERA (3.68) still looks fine, but his home FIP balloons to 5.75 and his left-on-base rate is an extreme 87.6% - suggesting his solid home ERA has leaned heavily on strand-rate luck rather than the quality of his stuff (that's over just 22 innings, so it's worth watching whether it holds up). His BABIP has also crept up, from .321 on the season to .345 over his last five starts, another sign the batted-ball luck hasn't fully been on his side either.

Anders Tolhurst, on the other side, has only a 4.19 season ERA, but his last-five-start FIP (3.48) is well ahead of his season mark (3.87), and his walk rate has dropped sharply from 5.4% to 2.4% - a sign his control is tightening up. He's on the road tonight, though, and his road splits (5.28 ERA, 4.79 FIP) are clearly worse than his home numbers (3.33 ERA, 3.15 FIP). On the flip side, he's had real success against KT specifically - a 2.77 career ERA over 13 innings (small sample) - including a gem on August 19th (7 innings, no earned runs), though he was rocked the other way on July 16th (6 innings, 4 earned).

Both lineups are trending hot. LG's team wOBA has climbed from .349 on the season to .399 over the last five games, led by Austin, who's putting up a 196.8 wRC+ with 39 home runs - elite production by any measure. KT has also ticked up, from .355 to .381, anchored by Hilliard (145.9 wRC+, 36 HR) and Ahn Hyun-min (162.9 wRC+). Worth noting both lineups are still unconfirmed for tonight and are being projected from each team's most recent lineup.

The bullpens are where this really separates. LG's relief corps has a 7.32 ERA over their last 10 games - clearly struggling - while KT's bullpen has been steady at 4.05. KT actually used more arms recently (8 pitchers, 12.7 innings vs. LG's 6 pitchers, 10.3 innings), yet still produced far better results.

In summary, the gap between Logan Allen's shiny ERA and his much rougher peripherals - especially at home, where he's throwing tonight - along with LG's recently shaky bullpen, look like the two biggest variables in this game. Tolhurst has struggled on the road this season, but his recent form and his history against KT aren't bad, so how each starter's underlying performance holds up tonight may matter more than their season-long ERA line.