[Sep 18, 2026 (Fri)] KBO Analysis NC @ Lotte Preview - BeaverStats

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I run a site analyzing KBO data, and here's a quick breakdown of one game.

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Quick preview of NC @ Lotte (Sep 18, 2026 (Fri)).

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9/18 NC Dinos vs Lotte Giants

NC Dinos starting pitcher: Jae Hak Lee Lotte Giants starting pitcher: Elvin Rodriguez

NC (6th, .480) and Lotte (9th, .427) meet near the bottom of the standings, and both are cold right now - NC on a 4-game losing streak, Lotte on a 3-game skid. NC holds a clear edge in this season's head-to-head at 9-6 (60%).

Away starter Jae Hak Lee is essentially making his first extended return this season - his entire tracked innings total is just 9.0 IP, so his season and last-5 numbers are the same tiny sample (only two outings, 9/5 vs Kiwoom and 9/11 vs Hanwha). His ERA sits at 5.00, but FIP is actually worse at 6.49, so the underlying process looks shakier than the surface number - BB% is a high 13.5% against an 8.1% K-BB%, and LOB% is a poor 58.8%. BABIP at .238 has run in his favor, though, so with a sample this small it's hard to say how much of this will hold. Velocity has ticked up slightly, from an average of 139 (max 143) on 9/5 to 140.8 (max 145) on 9/11.

Home starter Elvin Rodriguez is a clear workhorse with 143.2 innings this season (ERA 4.20/FIP 4.32, closely matched - a stable full-season profile), but his last 5 starts have seen FIP balloon to 6.27. BABIP (.314) and LOB% (75.8%) are close to his season marks, so this looks less like bad luck and more like an actual command dip - his K-BB% has dropped from 17.1% to 11% recently. He's also starting at home today, and Rodriguez has been clearly weaker at home (ERA 5.46/FIP 5.39) than on the road (ERA 3.22/FIP 3.49) all season - a rough overlap of a recent slide and an unfavorable split. His career mark against NC, in a small 9.2-inning (2-start) sample, is also rough at a 6.52 ERA.

The lineups are trending in opposite directions. NC's bats have actually been hot lately - a .317 average over the last 5 games versus a .285 season mark - suggesting the losing streak isn't coming from the offense. Lotte, on the other hand, has cooled off, with a .305 wOBA over the last 5 games against a .336 season mark.

The bullpens tell a similar story. NC has actually thrown more recently (13.3 IP across 9 pitchers) than Lotte (8.0 IP across 7 pitchers), yet NC's last-10-game bullpen ERA sits at a much healthier 4.07 versus Lotte's 8.17 - Lotte's relievers have struggled badly even with a lighter workload, which doesn't leave much of a cushion if the starter gets into trouble early.

In summary, there's real uncertainty around Lee's small-sample return outing, but Rodriguez's recent decline lining up with his weaker home split, plus a Lotte lineup and bullpen that have both cooled off at the same time, look like the bigger factors in this one.