[Sep 22, 2026 (Tue)] KBO Analysis Doosan @ Kiwoom Preview - BeaverStats

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Quick preview of Doosan @ Kiwoom (Sep 22, 2026 (Tue)).

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09/22 Bears vs Heroes

Bears starting pitcher: Wesley Benjamin Heroes starting pitcher: Jhun Jun-pyo

Fifth-place Doosan faces last-place Kiwoom today at Gocheok. Doosan is 65-62 and Kiwoom is 45-85. Doosan leads the season series 10-4, but standings and head-to-head records are already priced in, so I will not use them to reach a conclusion. Recent form has Doosan at 2-2-1 over its last five games with two straight losses to KT, while Kiwoom is 0-4-1 and winless. Gocheok is a dome, so weather is not a factor.

The pitching matchup heavily favors Benjamin. His season ERA of 2.41 matches a 2.82 FIP, results in line with his underlying numbers, and a 19.5% K-BB% and a 12.7% SwStr% show strong stuff. Over his last five starts the SwStr% has climbed to 17.4%, the CSW% to 36.6% and the K-BB% to 28.9%, so his underlying performance is even better than his season line. His velocity is steady at 143.9-145.2 km/h on average. A 6-7 record reflects poor run support, not poor pitching. Kiwoom's Jhun Jun-pyo is 0-4 with a 4.66 ERA but a much higher 6.12 FIP. He has struck out 29 and walked 40, so walks outnumber strikeouts (a -4.8% K-BB% and a 17.3% walk rate), and a 5.9% SwStr% and a 22.5% CSW% show weak stuff. His last-five FIP is also poor at 5.83, and although his velocity is fast at 148-150 km/h on average, it is not producing that many swings and misses. His home ERA looks good at 2.49, but with a 5.84 FIP, an 83.8% strand rate and a .224 BABIP, luck helped him, so it should not be taken at face value, and his road ERA is 7.04. He pitches at home today, so his home numbers may look good, but keep in mind the process is the same.

The head-to-head numbers point in a clear direction. Benjamin's 5.91 ERA over three starts and 10.2 innings against Kiwoom looks bad, but his FIP there is 2.64 with a .455 BABIP, so bad luck piled up, and he went 1-2. Jhun, meanwhile, has lost all three starts against Doosan and was hit hard for a 19.29 ERA over 4.2 innings (including seven earned runs in four innings on August 30). Among Kiwoom hitters against Benjamin, Keston Hiura is 3-for-4 (.750), Park Chan-hyeok 2-for-4 and Gwon Hyuk-bin 2-for-5, but Matthew Davidson is 0-for-5. Against Jhun, An Jae-seok is 2-for-2 and Kim Min-seok 2-for-4 (.500) for Doosan. All of these samples are small.

The lineups are at a similar level, with Doosan slightly better. Neither side has announced its order, so this uses each team's previous lineup. Doosan has a season wRC+ of 104.5 and is hitting .281/.352 over the last five games, with Yunior Severino at .412 with three home runs, Yang Eui-ji at .313 and Kang Seung-ho at .333. Kiwoom has a season wRC+ of 100.9 and a lower .232 average over the last five, but nine home runs, so it is power-driven. Davidson is at .294 with three homers (.478 OBP), Park Chan-hyeok has three home runs and Lim Byeong-wuk two.

Doosan's bullpen is overworked. Over the last ten games its relievers have a 6.65 ERA against 5.74 for Kiwoom, both poor, and Doosan has thrown 16.3 innings across 11 arms recently versus 9.3 across nine for Kiwoom, far more. If Benjamin cannot go deep, Doosan has to use a drained bullpen. On splits, Benjamin is at 2.39 at home and 2.44 on the road, no difference.

In summary, Benjamin clearly has the edge on the mound, and Jhun, with a high walk rate and weak stuff, is likely to struggle with runners on base from the start. The biggest variable today is Doosan's bullpen workload. If Benjamin covers six or seven innings there is no problem, but if he does not, a Doosan bullpen with a 6.65 ERA that has already spent 16.3 innings across 11 arms could be overtaken by a Kiwoom lineup that has hit nine home runs over the last five games. On the other hand, if Jhun collapses on walks and hands Benjamin a big lead early, that cushion eases the bullpen burden and the weight shifts to Doosan.