[Sep 24, 2026 (Thu)] KBO Analysis Lotte @ LG Preview - BeaverStats

Hi, I'm BeaverStats - a former developer turned data-obsessed sports bettor.

I run a site analyzing KBO data, and here's a quick breakdown of one game.

KBO analysis is basically my full-time focus these days.

Quick preview of Lotte @ LG (Sep 24, 2026 (Thu)).

*Lineups aren't confirmed yet! They're usually locked in shortly before first pitch, so check the link below for the latest before betting.

The screenshots below are captured straight from the site's data.

You can see the full, more detailed data on the game list.

This post was analyzed/written by AI based on data from beaverstats.com. Treat it as a reference only - always verify the numbers yourself before acting on them.

09/24 Lotte vs LG

Lotte starting pitcher: Rodriguez LG starting pitcher: Tolhurst

Both teams are hot right now regardless of where they sit in the standings. Lotte is 8th (45.0%) but riding a 5-game win streak, while LG sits 3rd (57.7%) on a 7-game streak - so this is momentum vs momentum. The season series leans LG's way at 8-5 (62%), and this is game 1 of a single-game series.

Rodriguez's last five starts weren't pretty on the process side either - FIP 6.02 and opponents' wOBA at .403. But he's pitching on the road today, and his road split (3.22 ERA / 3.49 FIP / 14.2% SwStr / 31.9% CSW over 81 IP) is a different pitcher from his home split (5.5 ERA / 5.29 FIP), so today's location alone could be a bigger factor than the recent rough stretch. Velocity dipped slightly to 151.7 km/h last time out from 153.8 two starts prior, but nothing alarming. His career numbers vs the Twins (3.27 ERA / 2.20 FIP over 11 IP) look good, though that's a small sample worth taking with a grain of salt.

Tolhurst's season ERA (4.08) sits a bit above his FIP (3.86), suggesting results have lagged the process slightly, but his last five starts have been sharp - 3.19 FIP, 0.79 WHIP, .227 BABIP. A BABIP that low usually means some luck is involved, but 9.2% SwStr / 30.5% CSW says the stuff itself has been solid too, so it's not purely fortune. His home split (3.33 ERA / 3.15 FIP / 10.1% SwStr) - which is where he's pitching today - is also much better than his road numbers (4.95 ERA), so the matchup location favors him. One thing to watch separate from the results: his velocity has steadily dropped over his last five outings (150.3 → 149.2 → 149.4 → 149.1 → 148.6 km/h). His numbers against the Giants (6 ERA over 12 IP) aren't good, but again, small sample.

Lotte's bats look hotter of the two lineups. The team's season wOBA of .353 (98.8 wRC+) has climbed to .464 over the last five games, and - lineup still unconfirmed, so going by the most recent game - top-of-order hitters like Hwang Seong-bin (3-for-7 vs Tolhurst) and Jang Du-seong (3-for-6) have had success against him. LG's lineup is stronger overall by season numbers (.362 wOBA, 121.6 wRC+) but has only ticked up modestly over the last five games (.376 wOBA), a less dramatic surge than Lotte's. Worth noting: LG's best hitter this season, Austin (197.8 wRC+), is 0-for-4 against Rodriguez - though again, small sample for whether that continues today.

The bullpen gap is the clearest edge in this game. Lotte's pen has a 3.55 ERA over its last 10 games, while LG's has been rocked to a 6.94 ERA in the same span. Recent workload is similar on both sides (Lotte 12.7 IP/8 pitchers, LG 9 IP/7 pitchers), so this looks more like recent results than fatigue.

The game is at Jamsil with 23.7°C and 0% chance of rain - no weather factor to speak of.

In summary, the starters look like polar opposites on recent form (Rodriguez's rough stretch vs Tolhurst's sharp one), but factoring in today's home/road splits, both are actually pitching from a fairly favorable spot. The biggest swing factor today may come down to the bullpens rather than the lineups - whether Lotte's 3.55 ERA pen or LG's 6.94 ERA pen holds up better late.