[Sep 25, 2026 (Fri)] KBO Analysis Hanwha @ NC Preview - BeaverStats

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I run a site analyzing KBO data, and here's a quick breakdown of one game.

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Quick preview of Hanwha @ NC (Sep 25, 2026 (Fri)).

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09/25 Eagles vs Dinos

Eagles starting pitcher: Owen White Dinos starting pitcher: Koo Chang-mo

This is the first of a two-game set in Changwon. The 9th-place Eagles (.422) have lost 10 straight, and the 6th-place Dinos (.465) dropped yesterday's game to the Wiz. The Dinos dominated the season series 10-3.

On season work, White has a slight edge. He has a 3.35 ERA, 3.56 FIP and a 5.5% walk rate over 126.1 innings, the type who reliably eats innings. His stuff is not overpowering (9.5% SwStr%, 27.8% CSW%), and his last five starts have slipped a bit (4.07 FIP, 9% K-BB%). Still, his last outing on 9/19 against the Twins was strong (7 IP, 1 ER), and he averaged 149.6 km/h, his fastest in recent starts.

Koo Chang-mo is struggling on the surface and underneath. His season ERA is 4.16 with a 4.36 FIP, and over his last five starts he has a 5.01 FIP and a .387 wOBA allowed in 24.2 innings, so he is getting hit. A high .363 BABIP means some bad luck, but four home runs in five starts say it is not only luck. His velocity has stayed low at 142-143 km/h.

The head-to-head samples are small. White has a 6.23 ERA in 8.2 innings over two starts against the Dinos, split between five scoreless innings on 7/9 and 3.2 innings with 6 earned runs on 6/16, with a 3.04 FIP. Koo has a 1.64 ERA in 11 innings over two starts against the Eagles. Both are around 10 innings, too little to read much into.

Neither lineup is confirmed, so we are using the previous game's lineups. The heaviest factor tonight is the Eagles' slump at the plate. Their team wOBA has dropped from .352 for the season (wRC+ 106.5) to .247 over the last five games, and they managed only 13 runs in those five (2.6 per game). Kang Baek-ho (32 HR) has cooled to a .248 wOBA and is 0-for-5 against Koo, and Yonathan Perlaza (season wRC+ 137.8) is also slumping at .265. On the other hand, Heo In-seo (3-for-5) and Sim Woo-jun (3-for-4) have hit Koo well, though in five at-bats or fewer. The Dinos have also cooled (.314 over the last five vs .351 for the season), but Cheon Jae-hwan is hot with three homers and a .538 wOBA over the last five.

Both bullpens are shaky: 8.29 ERA over the last 10 games for the Eagles, 5.67 for the Dinos. Recent usage is similar and heavy for both, just over 13 innings (11 pitchers for the Eagles, 10 for the Dinos). If either starter exits early, runs could come quickly.

On splits, Koo has a 3.79 ERA in 80.2 home innings (4.64 FIP) and 4.62 in 64.1 road innings, slightly better at home, but his home FIP is actually higher, so it is hard to lean on. White shows no real split either (3.42 in 50 home innings, 3.30 in 76.1 road innings). The forecast is 23°C with a 31% chance of rain, not a major factor.

In summary, White's work is slightly better than a Koo who has lost form recently, but at the plate the Dinos are clearly in better shape than an Eagles lineup that has gone cold during a 10-game skid. The single biggest variable is whether the Eagles' bats can come alive against a Koo who has been hit hard lately, enough to end the streak. With both bullpens unreliable, how long each starter lasts is likely to decide the flow of the game.