[Sep 25, 2026 (Fri)] KBO Analysis Samsung @ SSG Preview - BeaverStats

Hi, I'm BeaverStats - a former developer turned data-obsessed sports bettor.

I run a site analyzing KBO data, and here's a quick breakdown of one game.

KBO analysis is basically my full-time focus these days.

Quick preview of Samsung @ SSG (Sep 25, 2026 (Fri)).

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09/25 Lions vs Landers

Lions starting pitcher: Kim Baek-san Landers starting pitcher: Lee Ro-un

This is the second game of a two-game set at Munhak. The 2nd-place Lions (.600) won yesterday 5-4 for their second straight win, while the 8th-place Landers (.450) have lost two in a row. The Lions lead the season series 9-6.

Despite the standings, the Landers have the starter in better form tonight. Lee Ro-un's full-season line is not pretty (5.40 ERA, 4.26 FIP, 10.9% walk rate), but for much of the year he was used in short stints of about an inning. Since moving into the rotation, he has been clearly better. Over his last five appearances (19 innings) he has a 2.07 FIP, 19.5% K-BB%, 11.1% SwStr% and 30.6% CSW%, including back-to-back long outings: 6.2 scoreless innings against the Bears on 9/9 and 7 innings with 1 earned run against the Dinos on 9/17. His velocity has been steady at 146-148 km/h.

Kim Baek-san has thrown only 14.1 innings all season. His 3.14 ERA looks fine, but his FIP is 6.60, his walk rate 13.6% and his K-BB% just 3.4%, so the underlying work is shaky. An extreme .189 BABIP allowed and 94.6% strand rate are what pulled his ERA down, and that is unlikely to hold. His recent outings have often been short (1 inning, 2.2 innings, 0.2 innings), so tonight is more likely to be shared with the bullpen than a deep start. He has no record against the Landers.

Lee's only work against the Lions this year was 4.1 innings in relief, so there is nothing meaningful there.

Neither lineup is confirmed, so we are using the previous game's lineups. The Lions' offense ranks near the top of the league (.371 wOBA, wRC+ 124.9) and is still strong over the last five (.384). Koo Ja-wook (.369 average, wRC+ 175.2) is the hottest bat with a .748 wOBA over the last five, and 25-homer Lewin Diaz is at .495. On the other hand, Park Seung-kyu (.242), Ryu Ji-hyuk (.201) and Choi Hyoung-woo (.260) have cooled. The Landers are at .337 for the season and have ticked up to .356 over the last five, with Kim Jae-hwan (23 HR) at .406 and Choi Ji-hoon at .417.

The Landers have a clear bullpen edge: 2.08 ERA over the last 10 games vs 6.25 for the Lions. Recent usage is similar, just over 9 innings for both, spread across seven pitchers each. If Kim goes short and the bullpens enter early, that gap could matter a lot.

Lee shows an 8.15 ERA in 17.2 home innings and 4.20 in 40.2 road innings, but the home sample is small, and his recent starts (9/3, 9/9, 9/17) all came on the road, so there is not yet enough to judge him as a starter at home. The forecast is 24°C with a 70% chance of rain, so a delay or cancellation is possible.

In summary, the Lions lead in the standings and at the plate, but the Landers have the better recent form in both the rotation and the bullpen. The single biggest variable is whether Lee, now settled into a starting role, can give another long outing like his last two against a Lions lineup led by Koo Ja-wook and Diaz. If Kim exits early, the late innings become a bullpen battle, and on recent form the Landers' bullpen is the more reliable one. The rain is also a factor to watch.