[Sep 26, 2026 (Sat)] KBO Analysis Hanwha @ NC Preview - BeaverStats

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Quick preview of Hanwha @ NC (Sep 26, 2026 (Sat)).

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09/26 Hanwha vs NC

Hanwha starting pitcher: Hwang Jun Seo NC starting pitcher: Toda Natsuki

This is the second and final game of a two-game set. 9th-place Hanwha (.419) has lost 11 straight, including a 7-8 loss to NC yesterday. Three of their last five losses were by one run. 6th-place NC (.469) took that game. NC dominates the season series 11-3.

On the mound it is Hwang Jun Seo against Toda Natsuki. Neither starter has had a good season, so this may come down to which one wobbles less rather than a true pitchers' duel.

Hwang has a 5.64 ERA and 5.00 FIP, and his 12.7% walk rate is his biggest weakness. His last five starts have been worse: a 6.73 FIP and 1.87 WHIP with five home runs allowed in 20.1 innings. His average velocity has also dropped from around 144 km/h in late August to 142.4 in his last start (9/20). He has struggled badly against NC (8.18 ERA, 7.84 FIP in 11 innings), and was knocked out early in both of his recent starts against them (3 innings, 4 earned runs on 8/30; 4 innings, 5 earned runs on 9/11). The one positive is his road work: a 4.26 ERA and 4.21 FIP in 31.2 road innings, clearly better than at home (7.71 ERA in 21 innings).

Toda has a 5.19 ERA and 5.09 FIP over 131.2 innings, poor on both results and process. His recent form is also poor. Over his last five starts his FIP is 5.79, his K-BB% has fallen to 2.8%, and his SwStr% is down to 7.5% from 10.3% on the season. He gave up 7 earned runs in 2.2 innings against Doosan on 9/13. His last start (9/20 against KIA) was 4.2 scoreless innings, but with three walks and a 4.5% SwStr%, the process was weak. He has a 6.14 ERA in three starts (14.2 innings) against Hanwha. His home ERA (4.10) looks better than his road ERA (6.22), but his home FIP (5.54) is actually worse than on the road (4.67), so the home edge is mostly luck.

Neither lineup is confirmed yet, so these are based on each team's previous game. Hanwha's offense has gone cold during the losing streak, with the team wOBA dropping from .352 on the season to .266 over the last five games. Kang Baek Ho (33 HR) is also slumping (.294 wOBA over the last five). Kang is 3-for-7 and Yonathan Perlaza 3-for-6 against Toda, but these are small samples. Kim Tae Yean (.380 over the last five) is one of the few Hanwha bats in form. For NC, Cheon Jae Hwan is the hottest hitter with three home runs and a .497 wOBA over the last five, and Kim Whee Jip (.446) is also swinging well. Park Min Woo is 4-for-8 against Hwang.

Both bullpens are shaky, with a 7.77 ERA over the last 10 games for Hanwha and 6.18 for NC. On top of that, Hanwha's pen has covered 17.7 innings recently across 11 pitchers, far more than NC's (10.7 innings, 8 pitchers). The rain chance in Changwon is just 10%, so weather is not a factor.

In summary, both starters are in poor form, so runs could come early, and while both bullpens are unreliable, Hanwha's is more worn down. The biggest swing factor is how deep Hwang Jun Seo can go after being knocked out early in both of his recent starts against NC. If he exits early, a tired Hanwha bullpen will have to cover a lot of innings.