[Sep 11, 2026 (Fri)] KBO Analysis KT @ Lotte Preview - BeaverStats

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Quick preview of KT @ Lotte (Sep 11, 2026 (Fri)).

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09/11 KT vs Lotte

KT starting pitcher: Logan Lotte starting pitcher: Kim Jin-wook

The 1st-place KT Wiz (.610) visit the 9th-place Lotte Giants (.437), a big gap on paper. Recent form points the same way - KT on a three-game win streak, Lotte on a one-game skid. The season series is much closer, though, with KT up just 6-5 (55%).

The starting matchup tells two different stories. Logan carries a 3.07 ERA against a 3.72 FIP, so his results have actually outrun his peripherals a bit this season, but his last-five FIP and xFIP have both dropped to 2.67, a real sign of improved form. His velocity has been steady in the 147-149 km/h range. Kim Jin-wook has had a rougher season underneath the hood (3.90 ERA, 4.56 FIP), and his last-five FIP sits at a shaky 4.78 - but his xFIP over that stretch is a much better 2.70, suggesting the results have been worse than the process, possibly some bad luck on balls in play. Swinging-strike/CSW rates are close for both (8.8%/27.7% for Logan, 9.8%/28.7% for Kim).

The head-to-head history actually favors Kim Jin-wook - a 1.89 ERA against KT over 19 innings, with wins in two of his last three starts against them (7/3, 4/8). Logan has also done fine against Lotte (2.77 ERA over 13 innings), but his last two outings were split 1-1.

The lineup edge belongs to KT - a 109.4 wRC+ on the season, climbing to .377 wOBA over the last five games. Hilliard in particular has been scorching (.538 wOBA over his last five) and is 3-for-9 against today's starter. Lotte's offense, meanwhile, has been below average all year (95.1 wRC+) and has actually cooled further to .327 over the last five - Reyes has gone ice cold (.158 wOBA in that span). One thing worth flagging: Han Dong-hee is 4-for-5 against today's starter, a small sample but notable. Both lineups remain unconfirmed and carried over from the previous game.

Both bullpens have struggled lately, but the gap is wide - a 5.18 ERA over the last 10 games for KT compared to 9.62 for Lotte. Lotte's relievers have also logged far more recent work (13 innings across 9 pitchers vs. KT's 7 innings across 5), adding a fatigue concern. The game is at Sajik Stadium, with 24.4°C temps and 0% chance of rain - no weather factor.

In summary, the head-to-head history is actually a point in Kim Jin-wook's favor, but the standings, recent form, lineups, and bullpen all clearly favor KT.