[Sep 12, 2026 (Sat)] KBO Analysis LG @ Samsung Preview - BeaverStats

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I run a site analyzing KBO data, and here's a quick breakdown of one game.

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Quick preview of LG @ Samsung (Sep 12, 2026 (Sat)).

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This post was analyzed/written by AI based on data from beaverstats.com. Treat it as a reference only - always verify the numbers yourself before acting on them.

09/12 LG @ Samsung

LG starting pitcher: Tolhurst Samsung starting pitcher: Jurado

3rd-place LG (55.3%) visits 2nd-place Samsung (61.2%). LG is riding a 4-game losing streak while Samsung just snapped back with a win, so recent momentum clearly favors the home side. The season series points the same way too, with Samsung up 8-6 (.570) — standings, form, and head-to-head are all aligned here.

The starting matchup has an interesting wrinkle: both pitchers are weaker at whichever role they're in tonight. Tolhurst has a 4.22 ERA over 134.1 innings this season, but on the road specifically (56 IP) it balloons to 5.46, and FIP (4.79) backs that up as real — his BABIP is also up to .331 from a .296 season mark, so the batted-ball luck hasn't gone his way either. That said, his last-5-start FIP has improved to 3.24, so he's not in bad form overall. Jurado has a 3.28 ERA over 112.2 innings, but at home (55 IP) it jumps to 4.09, and FIP (4.92) confirms it — with BABIP and LOB% both close to his season norms, this looks like a genuine, non-luck-driven weakness tied to pitching at home.

Head-to-head history alone makes Tolhurst look dominant against Samsung — a 1.24 ERA over 5 starts (29 IP), and his FIP (3.06) over that stretch backs it up as legitimately good. But his BABIP is a tiny .188 and his strand rate (LOB%) an inflated 80.8%, so a good chunk of that shiny ERA still owes to batted-ball and sequencing luck on top of the real skill. Jurado's numbers against LG (3 starts, 18.1 IP, 4.42 ERA) tell a different story — his FIP (3.87) is actually right in line with his season mark (3.95), but his LOB% (66.4%) is well below his season number (73.3%), so poor strand luck — not a real weakness against LG hitters — looks like the bigger factor behind that ERA.

Both lineups remain unconfirmed, so this is based on the most recent game. The bigger story at the plate is LG's cold spell — team wOBA has dropped from .346 this season to .271 over the last 5 games, lining up exactly with the losing streak. Samsung has cooled too (.370 to .331) but nowhere near as severely. Individually, Samsung's Diaz is 0-for-12 against Tolhurst and Choi Hyoung-woo is 1-for-11 (.091), both real enough sample sizes to flag as genuine trouble spots for Samsung's middle of the order today.

The bullpens show the widest gap of any category — LG's ERA over the last 10 games is 7.33, a serious red flag, against a stable 3.82 for Samsung. LG has also burned through relievers recently (13.3 IP across 11 arms), so fatigue could make the late innings even tougher for them.

In summary, nearly everything here — standings, recent form, head-to-head, and bullpen — points toward Samsung, and even Tolhurst's strong-looking history against them leans heavily on luck once you factor in BABIP and strand rate. The biggest swing factor tonight is probably how quickly LG's bats can snap out of their .271-wOBA slump, and whether their already-taxed bullpen can hold the line late.