[Sep 12, 2026 (Sat)] KBO Analysis NC @ Doosan Preview - BeaverStats

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Quick preview of NC @ Doosan (Sep 12, 2026 (Sat)).

The screenshots below are captured straight from the site's data.

You can see the full, more detailed data on the game list.

This post was analyzed/written by AI based on data from beaverstats.com. Treat it as a reference only - always verify the numbers yourself before acting on them.

09/12 NC @ Doosan

NC starting pitcher: Koo Chang-mo Doosan starting pitcher: Logue

6th-place NC (49.2%) and 5th-place Doosan (51.6%) are close in the standings, and NC's recent form (3-game win streak) is a step ahead of Doosan's (1). The season series tells a different story, though - Doosan has dominated it 8-3 (.730), a gap standings and momentum alone don't explain.

Both starters have an interesting twist tonight. Koo's home/road ERA split looks like home is clearly better (3.57 at home vs. 4.73 on the road, tonight's assignment, over 59 IP), but FIP actually runs the other way - 4.09 on the road versus 4.56 at home. BABIP and LOB% explain the gap: .246/78.5% at home (luck in his favor) versus .341/64.5% on the road (luck against him) - so tonight's road start may not be the disadvantage the ERA split suggests. Logue is a cleaner case: a 3.73 ERA over 137.2 innings overall, but at home - tonight's situation for him - it's a sharp 2.88 over 65.2 innings, and FIP (3.16) backs it up as a real improvement over his season mark (3.93), a genuine home-field strength. Both pitchers' last-5-start FIP has gotten worse (Koo to 4.80, Logue to 4.60), but for different reasons - Koo's K-BB% has dropped to 6.3% from a season 12.6%, pointing to a real command dip (his BABIP/LOB% over that stretch are actually better than season, so it isn't luck), while Logue's K-BB% has actually improved to 21.1% from 16.4%, and his FIP bump traces mainly to 5 home runs allowed in his last 30.1 innings - his SwStr% (10.1%) and CSW% (31.3%) both improved over that stretch too, so the underlying quality is clearly still there.

The head-to-head numbers need a sample-size caveat. Koo is 3.71 ERA against Doosan across 3 starts (17 IP) - not bad on the surface - but his FIP (6.20) is much worse, and a .236 BABIP / 85.1% strand rate suggest batted-ball and sequencing luck did a lot of the work, so this ERA likely won't hold up. Logue has faced NC only twice (9.1 IP), an even smaller sample, and there the results (4.82 ERA) and process (4.77 FIP) actually agree it's been rough for him, with a particularly poor 41.1% strand rate standing out.

Both lineups remain unconfirmed, so this reflects the most recent game. The most notable thing here is Doosan's cold streak at the plate - team wOBA has fallen from .327 this season to .245 over the last 5 games. NC has held up much better, dipping only slightly from .354 to .342. Individually, Doosan's Yang Eui-ji (0-for-7 against Koo) and Kim Min-seok (0-for-6) are both struggling.

The bullpens clearly favor NC - a 1.77 ERA over the last 10 games, among the league's best, versus 3.18 for Doosan. Both pens have logged similar workloads (12 IP each) recently.

In summary, the one solid signal from the pitching matchup is Logue's home strength, which FIP backs up as real - Koo's decent-looking mark against Doosan and tonight's road assignment are both less bad (or less good) than they look on the surface once luck is factored in. Doosan's bats have gone cold, though, and NC's bullpen is clearly the better unit right now. The biggest swing factor tonight is probably whether Doosan's frozen offense can wake up against a Koo who - road start aside - isn't really the pushover the ERA split implies.