[Sep 18, 2026 (Fri)] KBO Analysis Samsung @ Hanwha Preview - BeaverStats

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I run a site analyzing KBO data, and here's a quick breakdown of one game.

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Quick preview of Samsung @ Hanwha (Sep 18, 2026 (Fri)).

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9/18 Samsung Lions vs Hanwha Eagles

Samsung Lions starting pitcher: Ariel Jurado Hanwha Eagles starting pitcher: Jun Yeong Park

Samsung and Hanwha play their final head-to-head matchup of the season today, and it's been a lopsided series so far - Samsung leads 8-3 (67%). The standings tell a similar story: Samsung sits 2nd (60.0%) on a 1-game skid, while Hanwha is 8th (43.9%) and riding a 5-game losing streak. One quirk worth noting, though - Hanwha's road win rate (45%) is actually a touch better than their home rate (40%), so it's too early to call tonight's home game an automatic edge for them.

The headline story is Samsung's road starter Jurado. His season ERA (3.26) and FIP (4.13) diverge a bit, but on the road specifically the picture changes completely - his away split shows ERA 2.5 and FIP 3.04 over 57.2 innings, with both the surface number and the process number lining up well, plus a solid 12.4% K-BB%. That said, his last five outings (FIP 4.75, WHIP 1.40) show a slight dip from his season-best form, so he may not be at peak sharpness right now. His track record vs Hanwha is a small sample (3 starts, 19 innings), but a 2.37 ERA and three straight starts with almost no runs allowed (a no-decision and two wins) suggest he's had real success against this lineup.

On the other side, Hanwha starter Park has several worrying signs stacking up. His season ERA (6.13) and FIP (5.70) are both poor, and his fastball velocity has been trending down outing to outing, from 145.4 km/h in mid-August to 142.7 by early September. His last five starts got even worse (FIP 7.47, LOB% 45.8% - a stretch where he's been especially bad at stranding runners), and at home specifically his walk rate balloons to 14.2%, pointing to real command issues. His history vs Samsung is only 2 starts (6.1 innings) - a very small sample - but both ended in losses with early exits (5.1 IP/5 ER and 1 IP/0 ER), which is worth keeping in mind.

The lineups lean Samsung's way too. Their team wOBA sits at .370 (wRC+ 123.6) for the season and has actually climbed to .421 over the last five games, led by Koo Ja Wook (season wRC+ 164.7) and Lewin Diaz (.571 wOBA over his last five). Hanwha's Kang Baek Ho still brings real power with 32 home runs on the season, but the team's overall last-five wOBA (.354) is basically flat against their season mark (.360). Both lineups are still unconfirmed for today and carried over from the last game, so treat these as projections rather than locks.

The bullpens are close to a wash - recent workload is similar (Samsung 11 innings/11 pitchers vs Hanwha 13 innings/11 pitchers), and their last-10-game ERAs (Samsung 5.00, Hanwha 5.54) give Samsung only a slight edge, with neither side looking especially stable.

**In summary,** Park's declining velocity and his shaky home command (14.2% walk rate) look like a bigger swing factor tonight than whether Hanwha's lineup can snap out of its 5-game slide. Still, Samsung's own bats have gone just 2-3 over their last five, so this isn't a completely one-sided picture either.