[Sep 20, 2026 (Sun)] KBO Analysis Samsung @ Lotte Preview - BeaverStats

Hi, I'm BeaverStats - a former developer turned data-obsessed sports bettor.

I run a site analyzing KBO data, and here's a quick breakdown of one game.

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Quick preview of Samsung @ Lotte (Sep 20, 2026 (Sun)).

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09/20 Samsung vs Lotte

Samsung starting pitcher: Won Tae-in Lotte starting pitcher: Kim Tae-gyun

This is game 2 of a 2-game set. Samsung is 2nd (59.8%) on a 1-game skid, while Lotte sits 8th (43.7%) but riding a 2-game winning streak. The season series slightly favors Samsung at 8-7.

The most notable thing about this starter matchup is that Lotte's Kim Tae-gyun is essentially an unproven quantity - just 1.2 innings all season (27.00 ERA) and no prior starts against Samsung, so today is close to a real first test for him at this level. Won carries a 4.16 season ERA against a much better 3.16 FIP - a case of results lagging the process. That gap widens further on his road split (today's assignment): 5.07 ERA against a 2.55 FIP, with a low 59.7% LOB% and high .355 BABIP pointing to bad luck specifically away from home. Against Lotte (4 starts, 23.1 innings), he's posted a rough 6.17 ERA against a better 3.68 FIP - a similar pattern. That said, it's worth being cautious about leaning fully on the good FIP here, because Lotte's individual hitters have real, sample-backed success against him: Sung-bin Hwang is 5-for-13 (.385), Victor Reyes also 5-for-13 (.385), Seung-yeop Na 5-for-11 (.455), and Dong-hee Han 4-for-11 (.364) - several hitters with 11-13 at-bat samples. That suggests Won's poor results against Lotte aren't purely bad luck; the lineup has genuinely hit him well.

Samsung's offense has been strong all year. Their team wOBA is essentially flat at an elite .370 (season) to .372 (last five games), while Lotte has picked up from .338 to .365 recently, matching their winning streak. Both lineups remain unconfirmed and projected from each team's last game.

Both bullpens have looked shaky lately, with Samsung at a 5.29 ERA and Lotte at 4.86 over their last 10 games - not much separating the two.

In summary, Won's FIP suggests he's due for better results than he's gotten, but with multiple Lotte hitters showing real success against him in sizeable samples, that FIP shouldn't be trusted blindly. Add in Kim Tae-gyun's essentially blank track record on the mound for Lotte, and how that unknown starter holds up against Samsung's consistently strong lineup looks like the biggest swing factor in this game.