[Sep 22, 2026 (Tue)] KBO Analysis NC @ Samsung Preview - BeaverStats

Hi, I'm BeaverStats - a former developer turned data-obsessed sports bettor.

I run a site analyzing KBO data, and here's a quick breakdown of one game.

KBO analysis is basically my full-time focus these days.

Quick preview of NC @ Samsung (Sep 22, 2026 (Tue)).

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09/22 Dinos vs Lions

Dinos starting pitcher: Cleavinger Lions starting pitcher: Chris Paddack

Sixth-place NC faces second-place Samsung today in Daegu. NC is 59-67 and has lost seven in a row, while Samsung is 76-52, second in the standings but on a two-game losing streak. The Lions lead the season series 11-4, but standings and head-to-head records are already priced in, so I will not use them to reach a conclusion. It is a 6:30 p.m. game at 20.7C with light wind and 0% chance of rain, so weather is not a factor.

The information gap between the two starters is large. NC's Cleavinger has one appearance this season, three innings against LG on September 16 (one run, three walks and one strikeout), and the sample is far too small to base any judgment on. In that single outing his walk rate was 23.1%, his SwStr% 6%, and his velocity averaged 147 km/h (150 top). He has no record against Samsung. Samsung's Chris Paddack is 5-3 with a 3.23 ERA and a 2.96 FIP, results a bit worse than his underlying numbers, and a 22.1% K-BB%, a 4.5% walk rate, a 12.6% SwStr% and a 32.1% CSW% show excellent stuff and command. Over his last five starts he has a 2.78 FIP across 31.1 innings, which is steady. It is worth noting, though, that in his last three starts (against Kiwoom, Doosan and LG) he gave up three earned runs each time, a slight wobble compared with before. His velocity is consistent at 147.1-148.9 km/h on average. Paddack threw eight innings with one earned run (0.38 WHIP) against NC on August 23, but that is a single game, so treat it as reference only.

The home/road splits do not decide this one. Paddack has a 3.10 ERA at home (29 innings, 3.49 FIP) and 3.34 on the road (32.1 innings, 2.49 FIP), steady in both places, and NC's starter has no sample to split.

The lineups favor Samsung by a wide margin, though neither is in perfect form. Neither side has announced its order, so this uses each team's previous lineup. The Lions have a season wRC+ of 125.4, with Koo Ja-wook hitting .363 (170 wRC+) as the anchor, and the team is at .256/.381 over the last five games, with a high on-base rate. Lewin Diaz is hot at .412 over that stretch while Choi Hyoung-woo has cooled to .158. NC has a season wRC+ of 110.2 but has slumped to .226/.299 over the last five, with only Park Kun-woo alive at .389 with two home runs and Choi Jeong-won at .100. Against Paddack, Park Min-woo, Crim Blaine and Kim Whee-jip are each 1-for-3 and Choi Jeong-won is 0-for-3, all small samples.

Both bullpens are shaky. Over the last ten games NC's relievers have a 6.09 ERA and Samsung's a 6.15, both in the sixes. On recent workload, NC has used 14 innings across 12 arms versus 9.7 across eight for Samsung, so NC has clearly used more pitchers. That suggests the seven-game losing streak drained its bullpen, and NC probably has little to spare today.

In summary, Paddack is far ahead on the mound, while NC's side is a three-inning sample that tells us almost nothing. The biggest variable today is how many innings Cleavinger can cover. If a pitcher with a 3-inning sample and a 23% walk rate in that outing struggles early, NC's bullpen, which has already spent 14 innings across 12 arms, has to come in early, and with a 6.09 ERA that is a heavy burden. Samsung's bullpen also has a 6.15 ERA, though, so after Paddack leaves neither side is stable, and if he cannot go deep, the late innings could turn into a slugfest.