[Sep 22, 2026 (Tue)] KBO Analysis KT @ SSG Preview - BeaverStats

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Quick preview of KT @ SSG (Sep 22, 2026 (Tue)).

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09/22 Wiz vs Landers

Wiz starting pitcher: Bae Je-seong Landers starting pitcher: Pedro Avila

At Munhak today, first-place KT faces seventh-place SSG. KT is 78-47, first in the standings and riding a two-game winning streak, while SSG is 58-69, seventh but in good spirits on a four-game winning streak. The season series is an exact 7-7, and recent form is similar too, with KT going 3-1-1 over its last five games and SSG on a four-game winning streak. Standings and head-to-head records are already priced in, though, so I will not use them to reach a conclusion. It is a 6:30 p.m. game at 24.3C with light wind and 0% chance of rain, so weather is not a factor.

The key to today's game is SSG's Pedro Avila. He is 7-1 with a 1.39 ERA and a 2.16 FIP and has not allowed a single home run in 71 innings. Both his results and his underlying numbers are outstanding, and a 20% K-BB%, an 11.7% SwStr% and a 29.8% CSW% back that up. Over his last five starts he has a 1.94 FIP and a 0.75 WHIP across 36 innings, better still. There is one point to flag, though. His velocity has dropped by about 3 km/h, from an average of 153.2 km/h (157 top) on August 23 to 150.4 (154 top) on September 16. His results have held up despite the drop, but whether that continues is something to watch. KT's Bae Je-seong has a 3.38 ERA against a 4.04 FIP, so his results are better than his underlying numbers. His walk rate is high at 12.7% and his WHIP is 1.48, so he puts a lot of runners on base. Over his last five starts the FIP has improved to 2.85, but his walk rate over that stretch is still 11% and he has averaged only around 4.5 innings a start. His velocity is steady at 145.3-146.9 km/h on average.

The head-to-head samples are very small. Avila has faced KT in a single game, on August 23 (7 innings, three earned runs, a loss), where he had a .421 BABIP and a .308 batting average against, but one game means little. Bae has made two starts against SSG covering 9.2 innings with a 1.86 ERA, resulting in a no-decision and a win. KT hitters' records against Avila are also nearly nonexistent, with Sam Hilliard 2-for-3 and Choi Won-jun and Kim Min-hyuk both 0-for-3. On the SSG side, Park Seong-han is 3-for-6 (.500) and Jeon Eui-san 2-for-4 against Bae, but Kim Jae-hwan is 0-for-5. On splits, Bae has a 6.35 ERA at home (22.2 innings, 5.77 FIP) but a 1.50 ERA on the road over 36 innings, a big gap. He pitches on the road today, which favors KT, though the sample is too small to take at face value. Avila is slightly better at home, with a 0.90 ERA in 40 innings against 2.03 in 31 on the road.

The lineup momentum belongs to KT. Neither side has announced its order, so this uses each team's previous lineup. KT has a season wRC+ of 112.7 and is red-hot over the last five games with a .338 average, a .422 OBP and ten home runs. Hilliard, with 37 home runs, is at .421 with three homers over that stretch, Kim Hyun-soo at .563, Choi Won-jun at .421 (.560 OBP) and Heo Kyoung-min at .412, while Kim Min-hyuk has cooled to .105. SSG has a season wRC+ of 105.1 and is hitting .256/.344 with six home runs over the last five, with Ko Myeong-jun at .421 with two homers and Hong Dae-in at .500, while Guillermo Heredia is at .167.

Both bullpens are shaky. Over the last ten games KT's relievers have a 4.98 ERA and SSG's a 5.13, both near five. Recent workload is 10 innings across ten arms for KT versus 8 innings across six for SSG, so KT has used more pitchers. If Bae leaves early at his average of around 4.5 innings, the bullpen burden falls on KT.

In summary, Avila clearly has the edge on the mound, though the 3 km/h velocity drop is worth noting. The biggest variable today is what KT's hot offense (.338 with ten home runs over the last five games) can do against an Avila who has not allowed a home run. If KT's home-run-driven scoring pattern does not work against him, Bae will exit early and it becomes a bullpen battle (KT's 4.98 ERA), which favors an SSG side that has won four in a row. If KT gets to Avila early, though, the momentum could swing to KT.