[Sep 25, 2026 (Fri)] KBO Analysis Lotte @ Doosan Preview - BeaverStats

Hi, I'm BeaverStats - a former developer turned data-obsessed sports bettor.

I run a site analyzing KBO data, and here's a quick breakdown of one game.

KBO analysis is basically my full-time focus these days.

Quick preview of Lotte @ Doosan (Sep 25, 2026 (Fri)).

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09/25 Giants vs Bears

Giants starting pitcher: Na Gyun-an Bears starting pitcher: Choi Seung-yong

This is a single game at Jamsil. The 7th-place Giants (.454) have won six straight, their hottest stretch of the season, while the 5th-place Bears (.519) have won two in a row. The Bears lead the season series 9-5.

Neither starter comes in with good underlying numbers. Na Gyun-an has a 4.24 ERA and 4.54 FIP, with a .328 BABIP and .345 wOBA allowed, so he gives up a lot of contact. His last five starts are similar (4.29 FIP), and his SwStr% has dropped to 7.2% from 9.4% for the season. His average velocity has also slipped from the 145s in July to the 143s lately. Without swing-and-miss and with contact allowed, a hot lineup is a tough draw for him.

Choi Seung-yong has struggled all season: 5.92 ERA, 4.77 FIP, 7.7% K-BB%. His last five starts were slightly better (4.56 FIP), but in 21.1 innings he reached five innings only once (exactly five), so length is a concern. A low 54% strand rate means some bad luck was involved. On the positive side, his 144.4 km/h average in his last start was his fastest in recent outings.

The head-to-head numbers point in opposite directions. Na has a 6.35 ERA in 17 innings over three starts against the Bears this year, losing all three. Choi has a 2.45 ERA in 11 innings over two starts against the Giants. Both samples are under 20 innings and are reference points only.

Neither lineup is confirmed, so we are using the previous game's lineups. The heaviest factor in this game is the Giants' offense. Their wOBA has jumped from .346 for the season to .436 over the last five games, and they scored 40 runs in those five during the winning streak. Victor Reyes (.357 average, wRC+ 140.1) and 22-homer Han Dong-hui (.495 wOBA lately) anchor the order, and Na Seung-yeup (.556) and Go Seung-min (.474) are hot as well. Han is 3-for-5 against Choi, but that is only five at-bats. The Bears are at their usual level (.315 over the last five, .331 for the season). Yang Eui-ji (5-for-9) and Kim Min-suk (4-for-9) have hit Na well, both under 10 at-bats.

The Giants have the bullpen edge: 3.00 ERA over the last 10 games vs 5.23 for the Bears. The Giants' recent 9-plus innings, however, were covered by only five pitchers, so the load has been concentrated, while the Bears spread just over 12 innings across eight pitchers.

Choi's home/road split is meaningful: a 4.42 ERA (3.99 FIP) in 53 home innings against a 7.36 ERA (5.51 FIP) in 55 road innings. Both samples exceed 50 innings and the FIP gap backs it up, so pitching at home is a better setting for him. Na has a 4.78 ERA in 69.2 home innings and 3.63 in 62 road innings, but his FIP is nearly identical (4.61 vs 4.47), so that split means little. The forecast is 24°C with a 71% chance of rain, so a delay or cancellation is possible.

In summary, both starters are shaky, the Giants hold a slight bullpen edge, and the Giants' offense is far ahead on current form. The single biggest variable is how many innings Choi, who has been better at home, can hold off the red-hot middle of the Giants' order. If he exits early, the Giants' winning streak is likely to continue, and the rain could shake up the game itself.