[Sep 26, 2026 (Sat)] KBO Analysis LG @ KIA Preview - BeaverStats

Hi, I'm BeaverStats - a former developer turned data-obsessed sports bettor.

I run a site analyzing KBO data, and here's a quick breakdown of one game.

KBO analysis is basically my full-time focus these days.

Quick preview of LG @ KIA (Sep 26, 2026 (Sat)).

*Lineups aren't confirmed yet! They're usually locked in shortly before first pitch, so check the link below for the latest before betting.

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You can see the full, more detailed data on the game list.

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09/26 LG vs KIA

LG starting pitcher: Im Chan Kyu KIA starting pitcher: James Naile

This is the first game of a two-game set. 3rd-place LG (.573) and 4th-place KIA (.550) are close in the standings, and both lost their previous game. LG leads the season series 7-4, while KIA has won 60% of its home games this year.

On the mound it is Im Chan Kyu against James Naile. Im is 14-5, but his 4.06 ERA and 4.01 FIP are only average. He is a pitch-to-contact type sitting at 139-141 km/h, with a low 6.6% SwStr%. His last five starts have been better (3.74 FIP, 1.12 WHIP), though that stretch includes a 7-run blowup in 5.1 innings against Samsung on 9/6. His road numbers (4.81 ERA, 4.25 FIP over 73 innings) are worse than at home (3.38 ERA over 80), and today he is on the road. He has not started against KIA this season.

Naile has a 3.57 ERA and 3.58 FIP over 163.2 innings, so his results match his process, and his 14.9% K-BB% shows both strikeouts and control. His last five starts have been even better (3.29 FIP), and his velocity has held steady at 146-147 km/h. His home ERA (4.48) looks worse than his road ERA (3.02), but his home FIP (3.49) is about the same as on the road (3.65); a .344 BABIP at home explains most of the gap. His only start against LG (5/21, 5.1 innings, 5 earned runs) is too small a sample to mean much.

Neither lineup is confirmed yet, so these are based on each team's previous game. LG's lineup is built around Austin Dean (39 HR, 197.9 wRC+), who has a .682 OBP over the last five games. Oh Ji Hwan is hot with two homers and a .532 wOBA in that span. Austin is 0-for-3 against Naile, far too small a sample to matter. LG's team wOBA over the last five (.372) is slightly above its season mark (.354). KIA is also running above its season level (.371 versus .348), though with only one home run, the production has come from getting on base. Kim Sun Bin (.443), Han Jun Su (.453) and Kim Ho Ryung (.422) are swinging well, and Harold Castro (147.1 wRC+) remains steady, while Na Sung Bum (28 HR) has cooled a bit (.330 over the last five).

KIA has a clear bullpen edge, with a 3.55 ERA over the last 10 games against LG's 6.32. Recent usage is similar at 10.3 innings for LG and 9.7 for KIA. The rain chance in Gwangju is just 4%, so weather is not a factor.

In summary, the steadier Naile gives KIA the edge on the mound, and KIA also has the better bullpen, while LG has more power in the lineup behind Austin. The biggest swing factor is how long Im Chan Kyu, who does not miss many bats, can hold off a KIA lineup that has been getting on base well, and how much he can spare a shaky LG bullpen.