[Oct 16, 2026 (Fri)] KHL Analysis Lokomotiv @ Severstal Preview - BeaverStats

2026-10-15

This is an KHL analysis post written by AI.

Quick preview of Lokomotiv @ Severstal (Oct 16, 2026 (Fri)).

*Written before starting goalies and lineups were confirmed! They can change right before puck drop, so check the link below for the latest data.

You can see the full, more detailed data on the game list.

This post was analyzed/written by AI based on data from beaverstats.com. Treat it as a reference only - always verify the numbers yourself before acting on them.

Lokomotiv @ Severstal

Lokomotiv projected starting goalie: Daniil A. Isayev @ Severstal projected starting goalie: Alexander Samoilov

Lokomotiv's 5v5 shot quality edge meets Samoilov's home goaltending numbers.

Lokomotiv's 5v5 xG% this season is 60.1, against 48.4 for Severstal, a gap of 11.7 points. Lokomotiv is 11-3-0 through 14 games with a 38-23 goal difference (20-16 at 5v5). Severstal is 9-4-2 through 15 games, 35-31 overall and 22-19 at 5v5.

Neither goalie is confirmed; both are projected from recent starts. Isayev has a .919 SV% and +2.7 GSAx on the road over 33 games (last season plus this one), 15-14 as a starter. This season he is 10-2 with a .933 SV% and +4.6 GSAx, and +0.4 GSAx over his last five. Samoilov is at +17.8 GSAx at home over 28 games with a .933 SV%, 15-10. This season he has a .930 SV%, +8.6 GSAx and a 6-4 record, with +4.5 GSAx over his last five.

Lokomotiv has won two straight, most recently 6-1 over Minsk. Severstal has won five straight, most recently 2-0 over SKA. Lokomotiv won the only meeting this season 2-1 in overtime, a small sample.

If the goalies change, the picture shifts. Melnichuk has a .878 SV% and -0.5 GSAx in two games this season (1-1), which would trim Lokomotiv's goaltending edge. Skotnikov has a .939 SV% and +1.6 GSAx over six games (3-1), but his home GSAx is -4.8, far from Samoilov's.

In summary, Lokomotiv leads in shot quality and Severstal leads in goal. The key is whether Severstal, on a five-game win streak, can use Samoilov to offset that xG gap. The confirmed goalies matter here.