[Oct 4, 2026 (Sun)] MLB Analysis Braves @ Dodgers Preview - BeaverStats

Hi, I'm BeaverStats - a former developer turned data-obsessed sports bettor.

I run a site analyzing MLB data, and here's a quick breakdown of one game.

MLB analysis is basically my full-time focus these days.

Quick preview of Braves @ Dodgers (Oct 4, 2026 (Sun)).

*Lineups aren't confirmed yet! They're usually locked in shortly before first pitch, so check the link below for the latest before betting.

The screenshots below are captured straight from the site's data.

You can see the full, more detailed data on the game list.

This post was analyzed/written by AI based on data from beaverstats.com. Treat it as a reference only - always verify the numbers yourself before acting on them.

10/04 Braves vs Dodgers

Braves starting pitcher: JR Ritchie Dodgers starting pitcher: Tarik Skubal

Game 1 of the series is at Dodger Stadium. Los Angeles (100-62) finished six games better than Atlanta (94-68), but the Braves dominated the season series 5-1. The Dodgers closed the regular season with a three-game sweep in San Francisco, while Atlanta went 3-2 over its last five games.

The pitching matchup is lopsided. Tarik Skubal posted a 2.72 ERA, 2.51 FIP and 2.61 xFIP over 158.2 innings, with all three metrics in the mid-2s, so this is skill rather than luck. A 25.6% K-BB% and 15.7% SwStr% show both swing-and-miss stuff and command, and his last five starts (2.41 FIP over 32 innings) look just like his season. His velocity held up through the end of the year, averaging 97.1 mph and touching 100. Oddly, he was better on the road (2.04 FIP) than at home (2.92), but his home numbers are still elite. He faced Atlanta on April 30 and took the loss despite allowing two runs over seven innings with seven strikeouts and no walks.

JR Ritchie has a 4.91 ERA over 73.1 innings, and a 5.55 FIP says he's pitched even worse than that. A 13.2% walk rate is high, and a 7.7% K-BB% and 8.5% SwStr% don't point to a pitcher who overpowers hitters. He's allowed six home runs in 23 innings over his last five starts, pushing his FIP to 6.45, and in his most recent outing his velocity dipped to a season-low 92.8 mph with just a 2.3% SwStr%. His road ERA (5.57) is worse than at home (4.02), and he has never faced the Dodgers.

Neither lineup is confirmed, so these numbers use each team's previous lineup. The Dodgers carry a .348 team wOBA and 122.3 wRC+, one of the best offenses in baseball. They've cooled a bit to a .326 wOBA over the last five games, with Ohtani (.251), Freeman (.178), Muncy (.197) and Tucker (.203) all slumping at once. Will Smith (.505) and Andy Pages (two homers, .505) are carrying the lineup instead. With Ritchie prone to walks, traffic in front of on-base threats like Ohtani and Muncy (.377 OBP) could quickly turn one extra-base hit into a big inning.

Atlanta sits a notch below at a .328 season wOBA, and it's been colder lately at .295 over the last five games. Michael Harris II (.531) is the only hot bat, while Acuna (.169), Olson (.226), Baldwin (.271) and Yastrzemski (.093) are all struggling. Drake Baldwin is 2-for-3 against Skubal, but most of those matchups are about three at-bats, too small to mean much.

The Dodgers also have a clear bullpen advantage: a 1.09 ERA over the last 10 games compared with 4.10 for Atlanta, with similar recent workloads (15 innings across nine arms for LA, 11.3 innings across seven for Atlanta). Since Ritchie isn't built to work deep, Atlanta's bullpen will likely need to cover a lot of innings. It's forecast to be very hot at 38.9°C with no chance of rain.

In summary, the Dodgers have the edge in all three areas - starting pitching, lineup and bullpen. Atlanta's main hope is the 5-1 season series and the memory of beating Skubal in April. The key for this game is how long the walk-prone Ritchie can last without putting runners on in front of the top of the Dodgers' order, and for Atlanta to have a real chance, slumping hitters like Acuna and Olson need to wake up against Skubal.