[Oct 4, 2026 (Sun)] MLB Analysis Padres @ Brewers Preview - BeaverStats

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Quick preview of Padres @ Brewers (Oct 4, 2026 (Sun)).

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10/04 Padres vs Brewers

Padres starting pitcher: Robbie Ray Brewers starting pitcher: Jacob Misiorowski

Game 1 of the series is in Milwaukee. The Brewers finished with baseball's best record at 103-59, while San Diego went 91-71, but the Padres won the season series 4-2. Both teams come in playing well: Milwaukee closed the season on a five-game winning streak, and San Diego went 4-1 over its last five, beating the Cubs 8-0 and 4-1 back to back.

The pitching matchup tilts heavily toward Milwaukee. Jacob Misiorowski posted a 1.80 ERA, 2.17 FIP and 2.14 xFIP over 174.2 innings - all low-2s or better. With 252 strikeouts, a 31.3% K-BB% and a 17.6% SwStr%, his stuff is among the best in the game, and he held his velocity all season, averaging 100.7 mph and touching 102-104. His last five starts (2.25 FIP over 23.2 innings) look similar to his season, but his walk rate rose to 9.6% from 6.6% and his outings were on the short side at three to six innings. He's even tougher at home (1.52 ERA, 19.4% SwStr%), and he threw seven scoreless innings with 10 strikeouts against San Diego in May, though he took the loss.

Robbie Ray has a 3.59 ERA over 165.2 innings, but a 4.69 FIP and 4.91 xFIP say he's pitched more than a run worse than that. His 12.0% walk rate is high, and a .258 BABIP and 77.8% LOB% gave him plenty of help. His last five starts have been shakier still - 14 walks over 22.2 innings, a 3.9% K-BB% and a 5.22 FIP - with several early exits, including 2.1 innings and five earned runs against the Yankees on September 6 and just 3.1 innings (seven hits) last time out against the Dodgers. His road ERA (3.96) is higher than at home (3.20), and he allowed two earned runs with three walks over four innings against Milwaukee in August.

Neither lineup is confirmed, so these numbers use each team's previous lineup. San Diego's bats are red-hot: a .434 wOBA with seven home runs over the last five games. Bogaerts (.610), Merrill (.467), Machado (.458, two homers) and Tatis Jr. (.447) are all hitting at once, and Ty France (146.1 wRC+) has been the team's most consistent bat all year. Against Misiorowski, though, almost everyone is hitless except Tatis Jr. (2-for-3).

Milwaukee has the better offense on the season with a .347 wOBA and 120.3 wRC+ (San Diego: .330), but it's been quieter at .321 over the last five games. Jackson Chourio (.604) and Brice Turang (.510, two homers) are hot at the top of the order, while Jake Bauers (144 wRC+ on the season) has cooled to .210, along with Contreras (.248), Mitchell (.214) and Lara (.168). Against a walk-prone Ray, patient hitters like Bauers (.389 OBP) and Turang (.367) could be key.

Milwaukee has a slight bullpen edge, with a 2.47 ERA over the last 10 games compared with 3.05 for San Diego, and similar recent workloads (12.7 innings across 10 arms versus 10.7 across seven). Given Ray's recent early exits, the Padres' bullpen may have to cover a lot of innings. It'll be a cool 12.5°C with a 3% chance of rain.

In summary, Milwaukee has the edge in starting pitching, the bullpen and season-long offense, while San Diego has the hotter bats and the 4-2 season series. The key is whether San Diego's red-hot lineup can run up Misiorowski's pitch count and chase him early, given his recent rise in walks. On the other hand, if Ray can't cut down on the walks, runners will pile up in front of the top of Milwaukee's order and the game could tilt early.