[Oct 7, 2026 (Wed)] MLB Analysis Dodgers @ Braves Preview - BeaverStats

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Quick preview of Dodgers @ Braves (Oct 7, 2026 (Wed)).

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10/07 Dodgers vs Braves

Dodgers starting pitcher: Yoshinobu Yamamoto Braves starting pitcher: Chris Sale

Game 3 of the five-game series shifts to Atlanta with things tied at 1-1: the Dodgers won 5-3 on October 4 and the Braves answered 3-2 on October 5, both in Los Angeles. The Dodgers had the better regular season (100-62 to Atlanta's 94-68), but the Braves took the season series 6-2.

Both teams send out aces, and Sale has a slight edge on underlying numbers. His 2.22 ERA over 170.1 regular-season innings is backed by a nearly identical 2.23 FIP, built on a 14.3% swinging-strike rate, 31.6% CSW and 26.5% K-BB% - this looks like skill rather than luck. His last five appearances have been even sharper (2.45 FIP, 17.3% SwStr), and his average fastball has climbed from 94.7 mph on September 12 to 96.6-97.2 recently. He does come in after throwing 6.1 innings on September 30 and 1.1 on October 2. He's been even better at home, with a 1.81 ERA over 94.2 innings.

Yamamoto posted a 2.53 ERA with a 3.33 FIP over 185 innings. The 0.8-run gap owes a lot to a .217 BABIP (.173 over his last five starts), so his surface numbers likely flatter him somewhat. Still, his stuff has been better than his season average lately - a 17.8% SwStr, 31.5% CSW and 2.50 xFIP over his last five - and his velocity has held steady at 95.5-96.6 mph. The one concern is five home runs allowed over his last 33.1 innings. He's been better on the road (1.77 ERA over 81.1 innings), and his last outing was September 24.

The head-to-head samples are small, but Sale's is the more impressive. He's faced the Dodgers twice for a 1.13 ERA over 16 innings without a single walk, including nine scoreless innings on August 28. Yamamoto has faced Atlanta once - that same August 28 duel with Sale - allowing one earned run over 6.1 innings and still taking the loss.

Neither lineup is confirmed, so these numbers use each team's previous lineup. The Dodgers' offense (122.1 wRC+) is clearly stronger than Atlanta's (104.4), but it has cooled to a .320 wOBA over the last five games versus .348 on the season. Shohei Ohtani in particular has been quiet (.178 wOBA over the last five) and is just 1-for-7 against Sale. Max Muncy is the hottest bat with two homers and a .424 wOBA over the last five, and Mookie Betts is 2-for-4 against Sale.

Atlanta's offense has held close to its season level (.317 wOBA over the last five vs .327). Michael Harris (.479), Ozzie Albies (.490) and Sean Murphy (.460) are hot, while 42-homer Matt Olson has cooled to .237 and is 0-for-3 against Yamamoto. Mike Yastrzemski (.064) is also struggling.

The Dodgers have a big bullpen edge: a 1.47 ERA over the last 10 games versus 4.47 for Atlanta, with similar recent workloads (16.3 innings vs 17, ten arms each). The weather won't be a factor - 23°C, light winds at 2.2 m/s and no chance of rain.

In summary, Sale has a slight edge in the starting matchup thanks to his underlying numbers, home splits and track record against Los Angeles, while the Dodgers counter with a deeper lineup and a far steadier bullpen. The keys are whether the Dodgers' top of the order - including a cold Ohtani - can get to Sale, and whether Yamamoto, who has been prone to the long ball lately, can keep Atlanta's middle of the order in the park. If both starters hold up and it stays close late, the Dodgers' bullpen advantage could decide it.