[Oct 16, 2026 (Fri)] MLB Analysis Brewers @ Dodgers Preview - BeaverStats

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Quick preview of Brewers @ Dodgers (Oct 16, 2026 (Fri)).

*Lineups aren't confirmed yet! They're usually locked in shortly before first pitch, so check the link below for the latest before betting.

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10/16 Milwaukee vs LA Dodgers

Milwaukee starting pitcher: Dustin May LA Dodgers starting pitcher: Tyler Glasnow

This is Game 4 of the NLCS at Dodger Stadium, and Milwaukee leads the best-of-7 series 3-0. Milwaukee won the season series 7-3 and enters on a five-game winning streak. The Dodgers have lost all three games of this series. Conditions are 31.6°C with a 0% chance of rain.

May's results look worse than his process. He is 7-9 with a 4.69 ERA but a 3.59 FIP over 149.2 innings, with a 10.1% SwStr% and 27.1% CSW%. His last five starts are a concern: 11.1 innings, 5.74 FIP, three homers, six walks, 9.6% SwStr% and 23.6% CSW%. His velocity is rising, though. His average went from 96.6 on Sept. 19 to 98.6 on Oct. 13, with a 100.4 peak on Oct. 7. On the road he has a 5.88 ERA and 4.45 FIP over 59.2 innings. Against the Dodgers this season he has two outings totaling 7 innings, with a 3.86 ERA and 3.23 FIP.

Glasnow has a 3.43 ERA and 2.81 FIP over 78.2 innings, with a 0.97 WHIP, 23.7% K-BB%, 12.6% SwStr% and 32.6% CSW%. His last five starts (27 innings) show a 2.90 FIP and 33.7% CSW%. His Oct. 8 outing was shakier, with five walks and a 23.1% CSW% over 4.2 innings. His average velocity rose from 95.7 on Sept. 6 to 96.8 on Oct. 8. He has not pitched against Milwaukee this season.

Neither lineup is confirmed, so these use each team's previous lineup. Milwaukee has a 117.2 team wRC+ and is hitting .282/.367/.355 with six homers over its last five games. Contreras is at .450/.522/.539 in that span, while Chourio is at .182. The Dodgers have a 120.2 wRC+ but are hitting .178/.255/.235 over their last five. Ohtani has 30 homers and a 143.4 wRC+, but is batting .143 recently. Against May, the samples are tiny: Freeman, Pages and Tucker are each 1-for-3, Teoscar Hernandez is 1-for-4, Ohtani and Muncy are each 0-for-2, and Betts is 0-for-1.

Over their last 10 games, Milwaukee's bullpen has a 1.99 ERA and the Dodgers' has 2.63. Milwaukee has used 13.7 recent innings across six relievers, and the Dodgers 11.3 across eight.

In summary, the starter metrics favor Glasnow, while May's rising velocity has not yet shown up in his recent FIP or whiff numbers. The key for the Dodgers is whether their cold bats wake up with their season on the line. For Milwaukee, the question is whether its recent hitting can offset May's shaky form and its heavier bullpen workload.