[Oct 24, 2026 (Sat)] MLB Analysis Rays @ Brewers Preview - BeaverStats

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Quick preview of Rays @ Brewers (Oct 24, 2026 (Sat)).

*Lineups aren't confirmed yet! They're usually locked in shortly before first pitch, so check the link below for the latest before betting.

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10/24 Tampa Bay vs Milwaukee

Tampa Bay starting pitcher: Drew Rasmussen Milwaukee starting pitcher: Jacob Misiorowski

This is Game 1 of the World Series, a best-of-seven with both teams at 0 series wins. Tampa Bay (98-64, 61%) has lost its last game, while Milwaukee (103-59, 64%) is riding a five-game winning streak. Tampa Bay is 1-2 against Milwaukee this season. Weather at Miller Park looks calm: 13.4°C, 1.9 m/s wind, 1% chance of rain.

Both starters have results that match their process. Rasmussen is 18-5 with a 2.52 ERA and a 2.79 FIP. His season SwStr% is 11.7% and CSW% 28.2%, but over his last five starts (32.2 IP) he has a 2.37 FIP, 14.5% SwStr% and 30.4% CSW%. His 94.8% LOB% in that stretch suggests some sequencing luck. On October 13 he allowed two homers over 6.0 IP with a 7.7% SwStr%, then threw 7.0 IP with one earned run on October 19. His average velocity has crept from 94.9 to 95.6. Against Milwaukee on April 2 he gave up one earned run in 5.0 IP, though his FIP in that small sample was 3.10.

Misiorowski is 16-5 with a 1.87 ERA and 2.14 FIP, backed by a 17.2% SwStr%, 33.5% CSW% and 30.6% K-BB%. His last five starts (21.2 IP) show a 1.56 FIP but also a .327 BABIP and 1.11 WHIP, and his last two outings ran only 4.1 and 4.0 innings. His average velocity has stayed between 100.7 and 101.2. Against Tampa Bay on April 2 he allowed two earned runs in 6.0 IP, with a 4.42 FIP, so the process trailed the result in that small sample.

Lineups are unconfirmed, so these use each team's previous game. Tampa Bay has hit .258/.325/.316 with 3 homers over its last five games. Yandy Diaz (.318) and Hicks (.333) are hot, while Victor Mesa Jr. (.059) and Johnny DeLuca (.125) are cold. Against Misiorowski, Diaz is 1-for-3, Hicks 1-for-2, and Jonathan Aranda and Junior Caminero are each 0-for-3. Milwaukee has hit .260/.349/.340 with 6 homers over its last five. William Contreras is at .368 and Jake Bauers at .333 with a .524 OBP, while Jackson Chourio is at .174. Against Rasmussen, Brice Turang is 1-for-2, Contreras 1-for-3, Garrett Mitchell 1-for-2 and Bauers 0-for-2, all tiny samples.

Tampa Bay's bullpen has thrown 9.3 innings across six pitchers recently, with a 3.82 ERA over its last 10 games. Milwaukee's has thrown 17 innings across six pitchers with a 1.79 ERA.

In summary, two starters with strong underlying numbers meet in this matchup. Whether Misiorowski's short recent outings and Rasmussen's high LOB% hold up is the key. Milwaukee's heavier bullpen workload against Tampa Bay's weaker recent bullpen results is also worth watching.