[Oct 28, 2026 (Wed)] MLB Analysis Brewers @ Rays Preview - BeaverStats

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I run a site analyzing MLB data, and here's a quick breakdown of one game.

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Quick preview of Brewers @ Rays (Oct 28, 2026 (Wed)).

*Lineups aren't confirmed yet! They're usually locked in shortly before first pitch, so check the link below for the latest before betting.

You can see the full, more detailed data on the game list.

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10/28 Milwaukee vs Tampa Bay

Milwaukee starting pitcher: Dustin May Tampa Bay starting pitcher: Griffin Jax

Game 4 of the World Series (best of 7) is at Tropicana Field. Milwaukee leads the series 3 wins to 0, having won the last game 10-1 for a 5-game winning streak. Tampa Bay has lost its last game. Milwaukee took the regular-season matchup 5 wins to 1. No weather data is available yet.

On the mound, both starters have results that differ a bit from their underlying numbers. May is 7-9 with a 4.74 ERA, but his FIP is 3.64 and xFIP 3.83, so results have been worse than process. His SwStr% is 10.1% and CSW% 27.1%. Away from home he has a 6.03 ERA over 62.2 innings with a .343 BABIP and 4.55 FIP. His last five starts cover 11.0 innings with a 4.45 FIP, 10.1% SwStr% and a 23.5% CSW%, lower than his season mark. Velocity has held steady: averages of 97.6, 98.1, 98.6, 97.2 and 97.9, with a 99.4 peak last time out. Against Tampa Bay he has a 10.8 ERA over 5 innings, but a 2.48 FIP and .500 BABIP, so the sample is tiny and noisy.

Jax is 8-11 with a 3.65 ERA, 3.82 FIP and 3.36 xFIP. His 13.1% SwStr% and 29.9% CSW% are above May's. Over his last five starts, 19.0 innings, he has a 2.58 FIP, 0.95 WHIP, 12.3% SwStr% and 32.5% CSW%. His 84.3% LOB% is high, so some of that run prevention may be luck. His last start, against Cleveland, was 4.0 innings with 3 earned runs and a 6% SwStr%. His velocity averages were 95, 95.5, 94.7, 96.6 and 95.8, with a 97.3 peak last time. Against Milwaukee he has allowed 5 runs in 1 inning this season, far too small a sample to lean on.

Both lineups are unconfirmed, so this uses each team's previous lineup. Milwaukee has a season wRC+ of 116.5 and a .366 wOBA with 5 homers over the last five games. Tampa Bay has a season wRC+ of 112.0 and a .320 wOBA with 3 homers over the same span. William Contreras is hitting .450/.500 over the last five, and he is 1-for-1 against Jax. Yandy Diaz is 3-for-4 against May and Jonathan Aranda 2-for-4, while Junior Caminero is 0-for-4. Johnny DeLuca is 2-for-2 against May but hitting .118 lately. All are small samples.

In the bullpens, Milwaukee has thrown 13 innings recently with 8 arms, and Tampa Bay 11.7 innings with 7 arms. Over the last 10 games, bullpen ERA is 1.48 for Milwaukee and 4.71 for Tampa Bay.

In summary, this sets up as May, whose results trail his process, against Jax, whose recent process has been strong. Whether May's road struggles and falling CSW% persist, and whether Jax's high LOB% holds, is the key. Recent lineup form and bullpen numbers lean toward Milwaukee.