[Oct 29, 2026 (Thu)] MLB Analysis Brewers @ Rays Preview - BeaverStats

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Quick preview of Brewers @ Rays (Oct 29, 2026 (Thu)).

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10/29 Milwaukee vs Tampa Bay

Away starting pitcher: Jacob Misiorowski Home starting pitcher: Nick Martinez

Game 5 of the World Series, a best-of-seven. Milwaukee leads 3-1, so a win tonight would close out the title. Both clubs finished first in the regular season (Milwaukee 103-59, Tampa Bay 98-64). Milwaukee's five-game winning streak ended with a 4-3 loss in the last game, and the Brewers won the season series 5-2.

Misiorowski comes in at 17-5 with a 1.87 ERA and a 2.15 FIP, so results and process line up. His SwStr% is 16.9% and CSW% 33.3%, with a 30.1% K-BB%. Over his last five starts he has a 1.93 FIP across 21.2 innings, though SwStr% slipped to 12.6% and CSW% to 29%. His velocity is steady: average 100.7 to 101.2 mph-range readings in each of the last five outings, with a peak of 104.8 on October 4 and an average of 101.1 on October 24. Against Tampa Bay this season, though, he has a 2.45 ERA but a 3.54 FIP and 10.5% SwStr% over 11 innings, so the underlying numbers were less dominant. He won both starts, going 5.0 innings with one earned run on October 24 and 6.0 with two on April 2.

Martinez is 16-7 with a 3.08 ERA, but his 3.82 FIP and 4.20 xFIP suggest results ran ahead of process. His SwStr% is 8.4% and CSW% 25.5%, so he relies on a 3.7% walk rate rather than misses. Over his last five starts the process was better than the outcome: a 2.36 FIP in 18.2 innings, but a .339 BABIP, 62.5% LOB% and nine runs allowed. His average velocity rose from 92.8 to the 93.4 to 94 range. Against Milwaukee he has a 2.72 FIP and no walks over 13 innings, including 5.0 innings with two earned runs in a loss on October 24 and 2.0 scoreless innings on October 28. His home FIP is 4.38 over 87.1 innings, worse than on the road.

Neither lineup is confirmed, so these use each team's previous game. Milwaukee has a 114.9 team wRC+ and is hitting .274/.355/.348 over the last five games, led by Jackson Chourio at .400 and William Contreras at .400, who is 3-for-5 against Martinez. Garrett Mitchell is 0-for-5 against him. Tampa Bay has a 111.3 wRC+ but is hitting .235/.308/.290 over five games, with Johnny DeLuca at .158 and Taylor Walls at .000. Matchup samples against Misiorowski are only two to six at-bats.

In the bullpen, Milwaukee has a 1.54 ERA over its last ten games against Tampa Bay's 4.38. Recent workload is similar: 17 innings for Milwaukee and 16.7 for Tampa Bay, each using nine pitchers.

In summary, Milwaukee has the edge on both process and results at starter and in the bullpen. Misiorowski's weaker FIP against Tampa Bay and Martinez's walk-free record against the Brewers are the swing factors. How much Martinez can offset Tampa Bay's cold bats is the key.