[Oct 4, 2026 (Sun)] MLB Analysis Yankees @ Rays Preview - BeaverStats

Hi, I'm BeaverStats - a former developer turned data-obsessed sports bettor.

I run a site analyzing MLB data, and here's a quick breakdown of one game.

MLB analysis is basically my full-time focus these days.

Quick preview of Yankees @ Rays (Oct 4, 2026 (Sun)).

*Lineups aren't confirmed yet! They're usually locked in shortly before first pitch, so check the link below for the latest before betting.

The screenshots below are captured straight from the site's data.

You can see the full, more detailed data on the game list.

This post was analyzed/written by AI based on data from beaverstats.com. Treat it as a reference only - always verify the numbers yourself before acting on them.

10/04 Yankees vs Rays

Yankees starting pitcher: Gerrit Cole Rays starting pitcher: Drew Rasmussen

Game 1 of the series is at Tropicana Field. Tampa Bay won the division at 98-64, with New York second at 93-68, and the Rays edged the season series 7-6. Tampa Bay is especially tough at home, winning 68% of its home games. Momentum belongs to the Yankees, though. They went 4-1 over their last five games, beating Boston 9-2 and 9-0 back to back, and they also won both games against the Rays on September 24-25. Tampa Bay went 2-3 over the same stretch.

Rasmussen has the edge on the mound. He posted a 2.67 ERA, 2.83 FIP and 3.00 xFIP over 172 innings - stable across the board - with a low 4.8% walk rate. His last five starts were even better: a 2.23 FIP and .179 opponent average over 31.2 innings, going at least five innings with two or fewer earned runs every time. His velocity has stayed steady around 95 mph. Against the Yankees he has a 1.88 FIP with 26 strikeouts over 22 innings in four starts, though he was knocked around once, allowing six earned runs in 2.1 innings at home on July 10. His last start also came against New York: 6.2 innings, one run and 11 strikeouts.

Gerrit Cole has a 3.61 ERA and 3.94 FIP over 127 innings, but his 3.20 xFIP is lower. Home runs are what pushed his FIP up, and his 4.8% walk rate shows the command is still there. The concern is recent form. He's allowed nine home runs over 28.1 innings in his last five starts (5.83 FIP), and his SwStr% has dropped to 7.4% from 9.6% on the season. His velocity has also slipped gradually, from 96.8 mph in early September to 95.9 last time out. On the plus side, he's been better on the road (3.46 FIP) than at home (4.50), and he's handled Tampa Bay well, with a 2.50 ERA and just one homer allowed over 18 innings.

Neither lineup is confirmed, so these numbers use each team's previous lineup. The Yankees carry a .333 team wOBA on the season, and they're red-hot at .398 with nine home runs over the last five games. Leadoff man Ben Rice (43 HR, 144.8 wRC+) leads the way with a .532 wOBA over that stretch, and Ryan McMahon (.513), Austin Wells (.417) and George Lombard Jr. (.424) have come alive. That said, Rice is just 1-for-10 against Rasmussen, and Cody Bellinger has cooled to .279.

Tampa Bay's .335 season wOBA is similar to New York's, but the bats have gone quiet at .306 with only two home runs over the last five games. Junior Caminero (42 HR, 143.5 wRC+) anchors the lineup but is 0-for-7 against Cole. Yandy Diaz has hit Cole well at 3-for-6, while Jonathan Aranda (.270) and Liam Hicks (.259) have slowed down lately.

Tampa Bay has the bullpen edge, with a 2.61 ERA over the last 10 games compared with 4.11 for New York. The Yankees' relievers have thrown less recently (9.7 innings across six arms versus 15 innings across 11 for the Rays), but Tampa Bay has spread the work across more pitchers. Tropicana Field is a dome, so weather is not a factor.

In summary, Tampa Bay has the edge in starting pitching and the bullpen, while the Yankees have the hotter lineup. The key questions are whether Cole, who has been giving up a lot of home runs lately, can keep handling Tampa Bay the way he has all season, and whether the hot Yankees bats can keep it going against a Rasmussen who has mostly shut them down this year. If Rasmussen gets through six innings, the Rays' bullpen advantage comes into play; if the Yankees score early, they can carry over the momentum from their recent two wins in this matchup.