[Oct 12, 2026 (Mon)] MLB Analysis Dodgers @ Brewers Preview - BeaverStats

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Quick preview of Dodgers @ Brewers (Oct 12, 2026 (Mon)).

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10/12 Dodgers vs Brewers

Dodgers starting pitcher: Tarik Skubal Brewers starting pitcher: Jacob Misiorowski

Game 1 of a best-of-seven series. The Brewers finished first at 103-59 (.640) and the Dodgers second at 100-62 (.620), with Milwaukee taking the season series 4-3. Both clubs advanced by winning their previous series 3-1.

This is an ace-versus-ace opener, so the starters carry a lot of weight. Milwaukee's Jacob Misiorowski has been overwhelming: a 1.86 ERA, 2.13 FIP and 0.81 WHIP in 178.2 innings. A 17.4% SwStr% and 31.2% K-BB% show the results come from pure stuff, and his average fastball has sat at 100.7-101.2 mph in each of his last five starts. He has been even better at home, with a 1.64 ERA and 19% SwStr% over 99 innings. The catch is length: he has thrown just 23.2 innings in his last five starts, under five per outing, and his last start (10/4 vs the Padres) lasted four innings. The stuff is not in question, but an early handoff to the bullpen is a real possibility.

The Dodgers' Tarik Skubal is not far behind: a 2.68 ERA, 2.55 FIP and 15.5% SwStr% over 164.2 innings. His last five starts show a 2.84 FIP and 0.84 WHIP across 32.1 innings, and he touched 101.1 mph in his most recent outing (10/4 vs the Braves, six innings, one earned run). Apart from a four-run, five-inning start against the Giants on 9/20, he has gone deep almost every time. His road numbers (1.70 ERA, 2.03 FIP over 74.1 innings) are actually better than his home numbers, which helps on the road. A .221 BABIP over his last five starts suggests some good fortune as well.

The head-to-head samples are small. Skubal has a 3.75 ERA in 12 innings over two starts against Milwaukee, but a 1.59 FIP and a .378 BABIP point to soft-contact bad luck. Misiorowski's only start against the Dodgers was six innings of one-run ball.

Both lineups are unconfirmed and carried over from the previous game. On the season the offenses are almost identical: Dodgers .347 wOBA (wRC+ 121.3), Brewers .346 (wRC+ 119.5). Both have cooled over the last five games (.301 and .307). For the Dodgers, Shohei Ohtani (.226 last-five wOBA), Mookie Betts (.251) and Will Smith (.094) are cold, while Max Muncy is hot with three homers and a .568 wOBA. For the Brewers, William Contreras is swinging well (.483), and Jake Bauers is 3-for-3 against Skubal, while Brice Turang has slumped to .185.

Both bullpens have been sharp over the last ten games: Dodgers 1.66 ERA, Brewers 2.06. Recent workloads are Dodgers 11.7 innings across eight relievers and Brewers 14 innings across six, so Milwaukee's arms have carried a heavier individual load. That matters if Misiorowski exits early. It is 19.4°C with a 0% chance of rain, so weather should not be a factor.

In summary, Misiorowski has the better pure stuff and the stronger home numbers. But he has not been getting through five innings lately, and Skubal's ability to work deep plus the Dodgers' deep bullpen could even things out late. With both lineups running cold, a low-scoring pitchers' duel looks likely. Expect Milwaukee to have the edge early and the Dodgers to gain ground the deeper the game goes.