[Oct 13, 2026 (Tue)] MLB Analysis Dodgers @ Brewers Preview - BeaverStats

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Quick preview of Dodgers @ Brewers (Oct 13, 2026 (Tue)).

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10/13 Dodgers vs Brewers

Dodgers starting pitcher: Yoshinobu Yamamoto Brewers starting pitcher: Logan Henderson

This is Game 2 of a best-of-seven series. Milwaukee took Game 1 by a 2-1 score at home, so the Dodgers need this one to even things up. The regular-season records were close (Brewers 103-59, Dodgers 100-62), but Milwaukee won the season series 5-3. Both clubs went 3-2 over their last five games, the Dodgers coming off a series win over Atlanta and the Brewers over San Diego.

Both starters carry a mid-2s ERA, so a pitchers' duel is the most likely script. Yamamoto went 15-9 with a 2.48 ERA over 192 innings, holding hitters to a .180 average with a 0.86 WHIP. His recent form is even sharper: 39 strikeouts against 7 walks over his last five starts (34 IP), a 25.2% K-BB%, and a swinging-strike rate that jumped from 12.5% on the season to 17.2%. In his last outing on 10/7 against Atlanta he threw 7 innings of one-run ball with 10 strikeouts, and his fastball is still averaging 96.5 mph. He has actually been better on the road (1.73 ERA vs 3.13 at home), and he beat Milwaukee twice this year (May and August), allowing 2 runs over 13 innings. The one blemish is 4 home runs allowed over those last five starts.

Henderson's line looks similar at first glance: 11-3 with a 2.44 ERA. But he has thrown only 103.1 innings, and four of his last five starts lasted exactly 5 innings, so he is not built to go deep. His walk rate over that span rose to 7.5% (5.6% on the season), and on 9/24 at Philadelphia his swinging-strike rate fell to 8%. On the other hand, he has been excellent at home (1.84 ERA, 92.7% LOB%), and in two starts against the Dodgers he allowed just 1 run on 5 hits over 12 innings. His last start (10/5) also featured his best average velocity of the year at 94.4 mph. Note that his home FIP is 3.48, well above the ERA, so the results have been better than the underlying numbers.

On offense, the Dodgers have the clear edge in power over the full season (wRC+ 121.8 and 176 HR vs Milwaukee's 116.7 and 130 HR), but their bats have cooled, with a team wOBA of just .290 over the last five games. Shohei Ohtani (.251 wOBA over the last five), Will Smith (.079) and Enrique Hernandez (.185) are all struggling, while Max Muncy (3 HR) and Freddie Freeman (2 HR) are carrying the power. For Milwaukee, William Contreras (.442 wOBA, 2 HR) and Jake Bauers (.476 OBP) are hot, while Jackson Chourio and Brice Turang have dipped. With Luis Lara and Joseph Ortiz hitting below .160 at the bottom of the order, the Brewers lean heavily on their top four. Lineups are not yet confirmed and are carried over from the previous game.

Both bullpens are in great shape, with a 1.88 ERA (Dodgers) and 1.54 ERA (Brewers) over the last ten games. Milwaukee's relievers have logged more recent work, 14.7 innings across 6 pitchers versus 9.3 innings across 5 for the Dodgers, so Los Angeles is a little fresher. If Henderson exits around the fifth, Milwaukee's pen will need to cover four-plus innings, which could decide the late innings. The forecast is around 28°C with a 4% chance of rain, so weather should not be a factor.

In summary, Yamamoto holds the edge in the starting matchup thanks to his length, current stuff, road numbers and track record against Milwaukee. Milwaukee counters with Henderson at home, a bullpen with a 1.54 ERA over its last ten games, and a Dodgers lineup that has gone quiet. Expect another low-scoring game like Game 1. For the Dodgers, the key is extra-base power from Muncy and Freeman; for the Brewers, it is how cleanly they bridge the innings after Henderson's fifth.