[Oct 13, 2026 (Tue)] MLB Analysis Guardians @ Rays Preview - BeaverStats

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Quick preview of Guardians @ Rays (Oct 13, 2026 (Tue)).

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10/13 Guardians vs Rays

Guardians starting pitcher: Foster Griffin Rays starting pitcher: Drew Rasmussen

This is Game 1 of a best-of-seven series. Tampa Bay finished the regular season in first place at 98-64 (.610) and swept the Yankees 3-0 in the previous round. Cleveland went just 85-77 but got past the White Sox 3-2 to get here. The Rays won the season series 5-1 and were especially tough at home, winning 68% of their home games.

The pitching matchup tilts heavily toward Tampa Bay. Rasmussen went 17-5 with a 2.55 ERA and a 2.76 FIP, so the results were backed by the underlying numbers, and he is even hotter right now. Over his last five starts he allowed 3 runs in 33.2 innings with a .149 opponent average and a 0.71 WHIP. In his last outing on 10/4 against the Yankees he threw 8 scoreless innings, allowing one hit and striking out 10. He posted a 21.8% swinging-strike rate in that start while averaging 95.5 mph and topping out at 97.6 mph, some of his best stuff of the season. In two starts against Cleveland this year he allowed 3 runs over 12 innings (1.50 ERA) with 15 strikeouts.

Griffin went 16-6 with a 3.59 ERA. That is a lot of wins, but his 3.89 FIP points to an ordinary season underneath. His last five starts need some context. The results were ugly: 15 runs in 21 innings, a .344 opponent average and a 1.81 WHIP. Yet his FIP over that span was 1.92, with no home runs allowed and a 19.6% K-BB%, so he actually pitched well. The damage came from a .478 BABIP against, which points more to bad luck than to poor pitching. Still, he did get knocked out after 2.1 innings and 8 runs at Baltimore on 9/10, and he reached six innings only twice in those five starts. His last outing (10/8) lasted just 2.2 innings. He did not face Tampa Bay at all this season.

At the plate, Tampa Bay holds a modest edge over the full season (wRC+ 108.2 vs 100.8). Junior Caminero leads the way with 42 home runs and a .381 wOBA (143.7 wRC+), and he is hot again with a .448 wOBA over the last five games. Yandy Diaz and Jonathan Aranda both sit in the 120s by wRC+, giving the Rays a strong top of the order. The bottom of the order is the weak spot: Jorge Mateo (52.9 wRC+) and Taylor Walls (69.9), with Chandler Simpson and Nick Fortes also slumping lately. For Cleveland, Chase DeLauter (124.2 wRC+) has been the best bat, and Jose Ramirez is heating up with a .482 wOBA and 2 HR over the last five games. However, Ramirez is 0-for-6 against Rasmussen, and Angel Martinez (0-for-6) and Travis Bazzana (0-for-5) are also hitless against him. Steven Kwan and DeLauter each have two hits off him. Lineups are not yet confirmed and are carried over from the previous game.

The bullpen picture also favors the Rays. Their last-ten-game bullpen ERAs are close (2.89 for Tampa Bay, 3.02 for Cleveland), but the Guardians used 18.3 relief innings across 9 pitchers going the distance in a five-game series, while the Rays used only 10.7 across 5. If Griffin cannot go deep, that workload becomes a bigger problem for Cleveland. The game is played under a dome, so weather is not a factor.

In summary, Tampa Bay holds the edge in the starting matchup, rest, home field and the season series heading into Game 1. If Rasmussen keeps his current form, runs will be hard to come by for Cleveland, and the most natural script has the Rays' top of the order, led by Caminero, getting to Griffin early. For an upset, Cleveland needs Griffin's inflated BABIP to normalize and Ramirez and DeLauter to find some extra-base damage against Rasmussen.