[Oct 16, 2026 (Fri)] MLB Analysis Rays @ Guardians Preview - BeaverStats

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Quick preview of Rays @ Guardians (Oct 16, 2026 (Fri)).

*Lineups aren't confirmed yet! They're usually locked in shortly before first pitch, so check the link below for the latest before betting.

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10/16 Tampa Bay vs Cleveland

Tampa Bay starting pitcher: Griffin Jax Cleveland starting pitcher: Gavin Williams

This is Game 3 of the ALCS, a best-of-seven series tied 1-1. Tampa Bay won Game 2 by 3-1 after Cleveland took Game 1 by 7-3. Tampa Bay went 98-64 and finished first, while Cleveland went 85-77 and finished fourth. Tampa Bay won the season series 6-2. The game is at Progressive Field.

Jax is 8-10 with a 3.54 ERA, 3.71 FIP and 3.27 xFIP over 114.1 innings, with a 13.4% SwStr% and 30.2% CSW%. His last five starts cover 20.0 innings with a 2.46 FIP, 0.70 WHIP and .149 opponent average. However, they also include a .191 BABIP and a 95.2% LOB%. The 12.4% SwStr% and 32% CSW% are not far from his season marks, so the results look better than the underlying stuff. His average velocity rose from 94.7 to 96.6 (max 97.3) in his latest outing on October 8. On the road he has a 3.90 FIP over 54.1 innings. He has no history against Cleveland.

Williams is 15-8 with a 3.63 ERA, 3.31 FIP and 2.58 xFIP over 196 innings, with a 15.3% SwStr% and 32.7% CSW%. His results have run worse than his process. Over his last five starts (22.0 innings) he has a 1.84 FIP, 31% K-BB%, 19% SwStr% and 35.7% CSW%. His BABIP is .342 and his walk rate is 11.5%. His average velocity has climbed to 99 (max 100.8) in his most recent start. At home he has a 2.74 ERA and 2.62 FIP over 118.1 innings, against a 4.98 ERA on the road. In his one start against Tampa Bay, on April 30, he threw 7.2 scoreless innings with 9 strikeouts and no walks. That is a single game.

Both lineups are unconfirmed, so this uses the previous game's. Tampa Bay hit .272/.343/.336 wOBA (wRC+ 113.0) with 143 homers on the season, but only .209/.248/.241 wOBA over the last five games. Junior Caminero has a 143.7 wRC+ and 42 homers. Against Williams, Yandy Diaz is 1-for-3, Caminero 1-for-4 and Chandler Simpson 2-for-4, all tiny samples. Cleveland hit .251/.327/.321 wOBA (wRC+ 100.9) on the season, but .264/.355/.342 wOBA with 5 homers over the last five games. Jose Ramirez (.429/.478/.555 wOBA) and Patrick Bailey (.400/.471/.531 wOBA) each have 2 homers in that span.

The bullpens have been used equally: 11.3 innings from 7 pitchers for Tampa Bay and 11.3 innings from 8 for Cleveland. Over the last 10 games, bullpen ERA is 4.15 for Tampa Bay and 3.33 for Cleveland. It is 16.5°C with 2.4 m/s wind.

In summary, whether Jax's recent results hold up without the BABIP and LOB% help is the key. Williams has strong home numbers and rising velocity, so Tampa Bay's cold bats need to solve him. Cleveland's lower recent bullpen ERA could also matter late.