[Oct 18, 2026 (Sun)] MLB Analysis Rays @ Guardians Preview - BeaverStats

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Quick preview of Rays @ Guardians (Oct 18, 2026 (Sun)).

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10/18 Tampa Bay vs Cleveland

Tampa Bay starting pitcher: Nick Martinez Cleveland starting pitcher: Shawn Armstrong

This is Game 4 of the AL Championship Series, a best-of-seven. Cleveland leads two wins to one. Tampa Bay went 98-64 in the regular season and Cleveland 85-77, and Tampa Bay won the season series six games to three. Both teams lost their last game, and Tampa Bay fell 3-2 on October 16.

Martinez is 15-6 with a 3.14 ERA, but his 3.94 FIP says the results ran ahead of the process. His SwStr% is 8.2% and CSW% is 25.4%, and a 81.1% LOB% and .268 BABIP helped. Over his last five starts he has a 3.70 FIP across 23.2 innings, with 8.1% SwStr%, 23.6% CSW%, three homers and three walks. His average velocity moved from 92.4 on September 11 to 93.2 on October 8, with a 94.5 peak. Against Cleveland this year he allowed no runs in 13 innings (7 hits, 1 walk, 9 strikeouts, 1.96 FIP), including starts of 6.0 and 7.0 innings. That is a small sample.

Armstrong is 2-1 with a 3.98 ERA and 4.02 FIP over 40.2 innings, so results and process match. His walk rate is 11.1%, and at home he has a 5.3 ERA and 5.09 FIP in 18.2 innings. His last five outings total 6.1 innings with one hit, a 1.22 FIP and 16.9% SwStr%, but each was between 0.2 and 1.2 innings. On October 14 his average velocity was 92 (peak 92.7), below 93.1 on October 9. Against Tampa Bay he has allowed three runs in 2.1 innings, a tiny sample.

Lineups are unconfirmed, so these use the previous game. Tampa Bay has a 107.0 season wRC+ and 123 homers but is hitting .213/.241/.246 wOBA over its last five games. Junior Caminero has 42 homers and a 141.7 wRC+, with none recently. Cleveland has a 99.6 season wRC+ but .263/.327/.332 wOBA and six homers over its last five. José Ramírez is hitting .450 over that stretch. Against Martinez, Steven Kwan is 2-for-6, Ramírez 1-for-6 and Brayan Rocchio 0-for-4.

Tampa Bay's bullpen has thrown 10 innings with seven pitchers and has a 3.96 ERA over ten games. Cleveland's has thrown 12 innings with eight pitchers and has a 2.49 ERA.

In summary, even with Martinez's FIP above his ERA, he looks set to work deep. Armstrong has only pitched short outings, so how long he lasts before handing off to the bullpen is the key. Whether a cooled Tampa Bay lineup recovers is also worth watching.