[Oct 25, 2026 (Sun)] MLB Analysis Rays @ Brewers Preview - BeaverStats

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Quick preview of Rays @ Brewers (Oct 25, 2026 (Sun)).

*Lineups aren't confirmed yet! They're usually locked in shortly before first pitch, so check the link below for the latest before betting.

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10/25 Tampa Bay vs Milwaukee

Tampa Bay starting pitcher: Drew Rasmussen Milwaukee starting pitcher: Logan Henderson

This is Game 2 of the World Series, a best-of-seven. Milwaukee won Game 1 by 3-2 and leads 1-0, while Tampa Bay is on a one-game losing streak. Milwaukee has won five straight. The regular-season records are 98-64 for Tampa Bay and 103-59 for Milwaukee. Milwaukee took the season series 3-1.

Rasmussen is 18-5 with a 2.52 ERA and a 2.79 FIP, so his results match his underlying numbers. His season SwStr% is 11.7% and CSW% is 28.2%. Over his last five starts (32.2 IP) he has a 2.37 FIP, 0.80 WHIP, 14.5% SwStr% and 30.4% CSW%. That is better than his season line, though a 94.8% LOB% in that stretch leaves room for regression. He was hit for two homers on Oct. 13 with a 7.7% SwStr%, then threw seven innings of one-run ball on Oct. 19. His average velocity has risen from 94.9 on Sept. 18 to 95.6 on Oct. 19, topping out at 97.2. His only start against Milwaukee came on April 2: five innings, one earned run, eight strikeouts, a 36% CSW%. That is a small sample.

Henderson is 11-3 with a 2.52 ERA but a 3.35 FIP, so his results have outpaced his process. In his last five starts (24.0 IP) he has a 3.63 FIP, 9.9% BB%, 67.5% LOB% and 25.7% CSW%. His last outing, Oct. 13, lasted four innings with two earned runs. His average velocity has edged up from 93.4 on Sept. 10 to 93.9. At home he has a 2.04 ERA and 3.48 FIP over 53 innings. He has not faced Tampa Bay.

Neither lineup is confirmed, so both are based on the previous game. Tampa Bay's last five games: .258/.325/.316 wOBA with three homers. Yandy Diaz, Jonathan Aranda and Richie Palacios are hot, while Johnny DeLuca is at .000. Milwaukee's last five: .265/.357/.357 wOBA with seven homers. William Contreras (.412) and David Hamilton (.462) are hot, and Luis Lara is at .100. Against Rasmussen, Contreras is 1-for-3 and Brice Turang and Garrett Mitchell are each 1-for-2. These samples are tiny.

Tampa Bay's bullpen has thrown 8.7 innings across eight pitchers with a 3.55 ERA over its last 10 games. Milwaukee's has covered 16 innings with six pitchers and a 2.05 ERA. The game is at American Family Field...

In summary, Rasmussen's recent form and rising velocity stand out, while Henderson's FIP and last-five numbers trail his ERA. The key is whether Milwaukee's hot bats can disturb Rasmussen. Bullpen workload could also matter late.