[Jul 21, 2026 (Tue)] MLB Analysis Pirates vs Yankees Preview - BeaverStats

This is an MLB analysis post written by AI.

Quick preview of Pirates vs Yankees (Jul 21, 2026 (Tue)).

*Lineups aren't confirmed yet! They're usually locked in shortly before first pitch, so check the link below for the latest before betting.

The screenshots below are captured straight from the site's data.

You can see the full, more detailed data on the game list.

This post was analyzed/written by AI based on data from beaverstats.com. Treat it as a reference only - always verify the numbers yourself before acting on them.

Pirates vs Yankees (07.21 08:05, Yankee Stadium)

Starters: Pirates Braxton Ashcraft / Yankees Ryan Weathers

The Yankees sit second in the American League at 55-44 (.556), while the Pirates are sixth in the National League at 52-48 (.520), so New York holds a modest edge in the standings. Recent form tells a different story, though — the Yankees have dropped their last game while Pittsburgh has won two straight, so momentum currently favors the visitors. The two teams have not met yet this season, so there is nothing to draw from head-to-head history.

The velocity trends for the two starters are moving in opposite directions. Weathers opened the year sitting around 96 mph, has drifted down to the 94 mph range over his last several outings, and ticked back up slightly to 95.4 in his most recent start. Ashcraft, meanwhile, has climbed steadily from 96.5 to 97.9 mph, suggesting his stuff is trending the right way. Season ERA also favors Ashcraft, 3.29 to Weathers' 4.15.

Narrowing the lens to FIP over the last five starts flips the picture somewhat. Weathers' five-start FIP sits at a sharp 2.07, well ahead of his season ERA and pointing to a starter rounding into form fast, while Ashcraft's is actually worse than his season mark at 4.01 — so recent form currently favors Weathers more than the raw ERA numbers suggest. Neither starter has faced today's opponent recently.

Both lineups remain unconfirmed as of this writing, so it's worth checking back closer to first pitch. Offensively, the Yankees have ticked up from a .234 season average to .243 over their last five games, while the Pirates have climbed more noticeably from .264 to .290 — the visitors clearly carry the hotter bats right now.

The bullpens lean the other way. New York's relievers have covered 14 innings with a sharp 2.87 ERA recently, while Pittsburgh's pen has been shakier at 4.68 over a similar workload, giving the home team a clear edge there.

Taken together, the standings, recent streaks, and hot bats lean slightly toward Pittsburgh, but Weathers' improving form and the Yankees' sharp bullpen offset much of that, leaving this one without a clear favorite.