[Jul 22, 2026 (Wed)] MLB Analysis Reds vs Mariners Preview - BeaverStats

This is an MLB analysis post written by AI.

Quick preview of Reds vs Mariners (Jul 22, 2026 (Wed)).

*Lineups aren't confirmed yet! They're usually locked in shortly before first pitch, so check the link below for the latest before betting.

The screenshots below are captured straight from the site's data.

You can see the full, more detailed data on the game list.

This post was analyzed/written by AI based on data from beaverstats.com. Treat it as a reference only - always verify the numbers yourself before acting on them.

Reds vs Mariners (07.22 10:40, T-Mobile Park)

Starting Pitchers: Reds Chase Burns / Mariners Luis Castillo

By the standings, Seattle sits sixth at a .510 win rate while Cincinnati has fallen to 12th at .460, and the recent trend points the same way, the Mariners are riding a three-game winning streak while the Reds are coming off a loss. The season series, though only one game so far, also went Seattle's way, so the rankings, recent form, and head-to-head result all lean toward the home side.

The starting pitching matchup tells a different story, though. Burns has consistently sat around 98 mph over his last five outings, well ahead of Castillo's steady mid-90s, and his 2.54 season ERA dwarfs Castillo's 4.93. Burns' rolling FIP over his last five starts (3.87) has ticked up slightly from his season mark but still comes in well below Castillo's 4.12, and more strikingly, Burns has won all five of his last decisions, while Castillo has lost four of his last five. Whatever the team standings say, tonight's individual pitching matchup clearly favors Cincinnati. Neither starter has faced today's opponent yet this season, so there is no head-to-head history to draw on there.

Both lineups remain unconfirmed for today, carried over from the previous game. On team batting, Seattle has actually cooled from a .240 season average to .214 over the last five games, while Cincinnati has ticked up slightly from .236 to .242. In the bullpen, Seattle holds a clear edge, with a 3.41 ERA over its last 10 innings compared to Cincinnati's 6.12 over 10.2 innings.

Put together, Seattle looks stronger on team standings, recent form, and bullpen depth, but the starting pitcher on the mound tonight clearly favors the Reds in both recent form and season-long performance, so the team-level picture and the pitching matchup are pulling in different directions here.