[Jul 22, 2026 (Wed)] MLB Analysis Mets vs Brewers Preview - BeaverStats

This is an MLB analysis post written by AI.

Quick preview of Mets vs Brewers (Jul 22, 2026 (Wed)).

*Lineups aren't confirmed yet! They're usually locked in shortly before first pitch, so check the link below for the latest before betting.

The screenshots below are captured straight from the site's data.

You can see the full, more detailed data on the game list.

This post was analyzed/written by AI based on data from beaverstats.com. Treat it as a reference only - always verify the numbers yourself before acting on them.

Mets vs Brewers (07.22 08:40, American Family Field)

Starters: Mets Zach Thornton / Brewers Brandon Sproat

This one has a clear gap in team strength. Milwaukee sits atop the National League at a .630 clip and has won four straight, while New York is way down at 14th with a .420 mark and just lost its last game. The season series also favors the Brewers, who lead 1-0, so every indicator lines up in Milwaukee's favor.

On the mound, Sproat has actually been trending up, sitting 96.2, 95.6, 97.0, 96.4, and 97.6 mph over his last five starts. Thornton, working off a smaller three-start sample, has held steady in the low 92s.

Season ERA tells an interesting story here — Thornton's 2.60 mark is well ahead of Sproat's 5.16, which on the surface makes the Mets' starter look like the favorite. But Sproat's FIP over his last five outings has dropped to 3.91, a clear improvement on his season number, while Thornton's recent FIP of 2.98 is still strong but comes from only three starts, too small a sample to lean on heavily just yet.

Neither lineup is locked in yet, so both projections use the last available lineup, and the offensive gap is significant. Milwaukee has held steady around .259 over its last five games compared to a .267 season mark, while the Mets have cooled off hard, dropping from .250 on the season to just .195 over their last five.

The bullpens favor Milwaukee as well. Workloads aren't far apart — 12 innings for the Brewers against 9 for the Mets — but the ERA gap is stark: 4.46 for Milwaukee versus a rough 7.30 for New York, which could matter if this one stays close late.

Altogether, Milwaukee holds the edge across the board — standings, recent form, offense, and bullpen. The Mets' one bright spot is Thornton's matchup, though with just three starts on the books it's still too early to know how sustainable that form really is.