[Jul 24, 2026 (Fri)] MLB Analysis Diamondbacks vs Cardinals Preview - BeaverStats

This is an MLB analysis post written by AI.

Quick preview of Diamondbacks vs Cardinals (Jul 24, 2026 (Fri)).

*Lineups aren't confirmed yet! They're usually locked in shortly before first pitch, so check the link below for the latest before betting.

The screenshots below are captured straight from the site's data.

You can see the full, more detailed data on the game list.

This post was analyzed/written by AI based on data from beaverstats.com. Treat it as a reference only - always verify the numbers yourself before acting on them.

Diamondbacks vs Cardinals (07.24 06:15, Busch Stadium)

Starters: Diamondbacks Brandon Pfaadt / Cardinals Michael McGreevy

The two teams are essentially tied on the season at 52% win rates, with the Cardinals sitting 7th and the Diamondbacks 6th, not much daylight between them overall. In the season series, though, Arizona holds a 4-2 edge, so while the records look similar, the head-to-head history leans slightly toward the Diamondbacks.

Both starters have been trending up on the radar gun lately. McGreevy has climbed steadily from 90.3 to 92.0 mph over his last five outings, and Pfaadt has gone from 93.5 up to 94.7, giving him the clear velocity advantage in absolute terms. On season ERA, McGreevy is the stronger of the two at 2.92 versus Pfaadt more middling 4.58, which on paper makes McGreevy look like the safer bet.

The picture shifts a bit when you look at FIP over the last five starts: McGreevy sits at 3.57 while Pfaadt is actually a bit better at 3.1, suggesting Pfaadt, who has had an up-and-down season, has genuinely turned a corner lately. McGreevy, meanwhile, is still solid but trailing his own season number slightly, so he is not quite riding the same wave. Both starters also have recent head-to-head experience: McGreevy shut Arizona down on the road on July 18, going 6.1 innings with just one earned run and five strikeouts, and Pfaadt answered with a solid outing of his own against St. Louis on July 19, allowing two earned runs over 5.1 innings. Neither has anything to be embarrassed about there.

Both lineups remain unconfirmed, still carried over from the previous game. Offensively, the Cardinals have cooled from a .255 season average to .215 over their last five games, while the Diamondbacks have actually heated up, going from .256 to .276, another small edge for Arizona.

The bullpens diverge a bit in workload: St. Louis has only thrown 8 innings recently with a 3.28 ERA, so they are well rested, while Arizona pen has logged 13.3 innings and still posted a sharper 3.14 ERA despite the heavier workload.

Put it together and the season-long numbers give McGreevy and the Cardinals a slight, steady edge, but recent form, the head-to-head results, and hot bats tilt marginally toward Arizona and Pfaadt. In a genuinely close matchup like this, it feels like a coin flip with just a slight lean toward the Diamondbacks.