[Jul 27, 2026 (Mon)] MLB Analysis Cubs vs Pirates Preview - BeaverStats

This is an MLB analysis post written by AI.

Quick preview of Cubs vs Pirates (Jul 27, 2026 (Mon)).

*Lineups aren't confirmed yet! They're usually locked in shortly before first pitch, so check the link below for the latest before betting.

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You can see the full, more detailed data on the game list.

This post was analyzed/written by AI based on data from beaverstats.com. Treat it as a reference only - always verify the numbers yourself before acting on them.

Cubs vs Pirates (07.27 02:35, PNC Park)

Starters: Cubs Jameson Taillon / Pirates Braxton Ashcraft

Looking purely at the standings, the Cubs sit 4th at 56 percent, clearly ahead of the Pirates at 7th and 51 percent, and the recent form points the same way, with Chicago on a one-game win streak while Pittsburgh is on a two-game skid -- on the surface, the road team looks like the stronger side. That said, the season series between these two clubs is dead even at 4-4, so despite the standings gap, the Cubs have not actually managed an edge in the head-to-head matchup, which is a notable wrinkle here.

On the mound, both starters have trended up in velocity over their last five outings. Taillon has climbed from the low 90s (90.8, 91.8, 91.7, 91.5, 92.2), while Ashcraft sits well above that range at 96.5, 96.9, 97.5, 97.3, and 97.6, a full five-plus miles per hour harder as a natural power arm. On the season, Taillon carries a rough 5.38 ERA over 72 innings (2-5), while Ashcraft has been far steadier at 3.95 over 116.1 innings (9-4).

By recent-form FIP, Taillon checks in at 5.72, even worse than his already shaky season ERA, and Ashcraft sits at 5.28, a clear step down from his solid 3.95 season number -- so both starters actually share a recent downward trend even though their season-long numbers look very different. The head-to-head pitching history adds an interesting wrinkle: Taillon has won both of his career starts against Pittsburgh (May 28 and April 13), but the lines were shaky, allowing 4 earned runs in 5 innings and 6 earned runs in 6 innings respectively, while Ashcraft has dominated the Cubs in both of his starts against them (May 27, 6.1 innings and 1 earned run; April 12, 5 innings and 1 earned run) -- so the matchup history clearly favors Ashcraft.

Both lineups remain unconfirmed as of this writing. Still, the batter-versus-pitcher data shows a notable threat on the Pittsburgh side, a hitter who has gone 3 for 5 with 3 home runs (a .600 average) against Taillon, while the Cubs counter with a hitter at 2 for 5 (.400) against Ashcraft, though overall the Pittsburgh side carries more punch in this matchup. Team batting has the Cubs trending up slightly, from .247 for the season to .267 over the last five games, while the Pirates have cooled off clearly, dropping from .268 to .210 in that span. The bullpens grade out almost identically, both sitting around a 3.3 ERA (Cubs at 9.1 innings across six relievers for a 3.31 mark, Pirates at 10.2 innings across six relievers for 3.29).

Put together, the standings and recent streaks make the Cubs look like the stronger side on paper, but the season series is already tied at 4-4 and the starting pitching history actually favors Ashcraft against Chicago, so this reads as more balanced than the standings suggest -- if anything, there is a case for leaning slightly toward the home side. Worth checking back once both lineups are locked in.