[Jul 28, 2026 (Tue)] MLB Analysis Blue Jays vs Nationals Preview - BeaverStats

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Quick preview of Blue Jays vs Nationals (Jul 28, 2026 (Tue)).

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Blue Jays vs Nationals (07.28 07:45, Nationals Park)

Starters: Blue Jays Max Scherzer / Nationals Andrew Alvarez

Washington sits seventh at 54-52 (.510), a clear step above Toronto in twelfth place at 48-58 (.450). The recent form points the same direction — the Nationals have won two straight while the Blue Jays are riding a one-game losing streak. The two clubs haven't actually met yet this season, so there's no head-to-head data to weigh here.

On the mound it's Max Scherzer against Andrew Alvarez, and the standout number is Scherzer's season ERA sitting at 10.23. His velocity over the last five starts has been essentially flat at 93.4, 92.1, 93.1, 93.2, 92.8 mph, and his FIP over that same stretch is 10.42 across 16 innings — basically matching the ugly season line, with no real sign of a turnaround. Alvarez, by contrast, carries a 4.22 season ERA with velocity bouncing around a bit (93.3, 91.0, 92.6, 93.2, 91.3 mph), but his recent FIP has actually improved to 3.53 over 21 innings, running ahead of his season number. This is about as lopsided a starting pitching matchup as this slate offers.

Both lineups are technically unconfirmed today, carried over from each team's last game, so the actual cards could shift before first pitch. Offensively, Toronto has warmed only slightly, from a .251 season average to .268 over its last five games, while Washington has caught fire, jumping from .257 to .338 over the same stretch. The bullpens are close enough to call even — Washington has logged more recent work (15 innings, 4.85 ERA) than Toronto (6 innings, 5.09 ERA), but the ERAs themselves aren't far apart.

Add it all up and this one leans clearly toward Washington — the gap in starting pitching form and the difference in recent offensive heat both point the same way. With Scherzer showing no signs of righting the ship and Alvarez trending in the opposite direction alongside a red-hot Nationals lineup, home field only adds to Washington's case here.