[Jul 28, 2026 (Tue)] MLB Analysis Cubs vs Cardinals Preview - BeaverStats

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Quick preview of Cubs vs Cardinals (Jul 28, 2026 (Tue)).

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Cubs vs Cardinals (07.28 08:45, Busch Stadium)

Starters: Cubs David Peterson / Cardinals Matthew Liberatore

By the standings, the Cubs look like the clearly better team — fourth place at 59-46 (.560) against a ninth-place Cardinals club at 53-52 (.510). The season series tells a different story, though: St. Louis actually leads that matchup 4-2, a real reversal from what the overall records would suggest. Both clubs enter on a one-game losing streak.

On the mound it's David Peterson against Matthew Liberatore. Peterson's velocity has held fairly steady over his last five starts (92.4, 92.7, 91.5, 91.5, 92.6 mph), while Liberatore has trended slightly downward toward his most recent outings (94.5, 95.0, 94.7, 94.3, 93.9 mph). Neither pitcher's season ERA is pretty — 5.97 for Peterson, 5.18 for Liberatore — but both have trimmed that down recently: Peterson's FIP sits at 5.10 over 25 innings and Liberatore's at 4.15 over roughly 27 innings across their last five starts.

Here's the real storyline for this game. Peterson has faced St. Louis twice already this season and been rocked both times — 3.2 innings and 10 earned runs (24.55 ERA) on July 4, then 3.2 innings and 6 earned runs (14.73 ERA) on June 11, pulled early both starts. That shows up in the individual matchup numbers too: several Cardinals hitters have posted huge lines against Peterson, including a 4-for-5 with two doubles and multiple hitters running wRC+ figures north of 300. This is a lineup that has clearly had Peterson's number. Liberatore's own history against the Cubs is more mixed — a near-shutout 5.1 scoreless innings for the win on June 1, followed by a 5-inning, 3-earned-run loss (5.40 ERA, with three hit-by-pitches) on July 6.

Both lineups are technically unconfirmed today, running on holdover cards from each team's last game. The offensive trends are pulling in opposite directions — the Cubs have warmed slightly, from a .247 season average to .263 over their last five games, while the Cardinals have actually cooled, dropping from .259 to .211 over the same stretch. The bullpens aren't close either: Chicago's relief corps has been sharp recently at 2.48 ERA over 10 innings, while St. Louis's bullpen has struggled to a 5.83 ERA over 9 innings.

Add it up and the Cubs look like the stronger team across the board — better bullpen, warmer bats — but the season series and, in particular, Peterson's rough personal history against this specific lineup are variables that are hard to ignore. On paper the Cubs have the edge, but this individual matchup could play out closer than the team-level numbers suggest.