[Jul 30, 2026 (Thu)] MLB Analysis Blue Jays vs Nationals Preview - BeaverStats

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Quick preview of Blue Jays vs Nationals (Jul 30, 2026 (Thu)).

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Blue Jays vs Nationals (07.30 02:05, Nationals Park)

Starters: Blue Jays Trey Yesavage / Nationals Zack Littell

In the standings, the Nationals sit 7th (51% winning percentage, on a one-game winning streak) just ahead of the 12th-place Blue Jays (45%, on a one-game skid). Their season series is dead even at 1-1, though, so the gap in the standings hasn't really shown up when these two clubs actually play each other.

Looking at recent fastball velocity, Nationals starter Zack Littell has trended 91.6-92.2-91.8-92.0-90.9 mph over his last five outings, dipping a bit in his most recent start, while Blue Jays starter Trey Yesavage has climbed steadily from 93.3 up to 94.8 mph, suggesting his stuff is trending the right way.

By season ERA, Yesavage's 3.92 is clearly better than Littell's 5.17. But looking at FIP over the last five starts, Littell actually comes in better than his season number at 4.61, while Yesavage's recent FIP sits at 5.01, a step back from his season mark, so the gap has narrowed if you only look at recent form.

Neither starter has a notable recent track record against today's opponent, so there isn't much to lean on there.

Both lineups are still unconfirmed for today, so the picture could shift once the actual lineups are announced.

Offensively both sides are trending up. Washington's team average has climbed from .258 on the season to .280 over the last five games, and Toronto's has jumped from .253 to .304, with the Blue Jays showing the bigger surge.

The bullpens look similarly worn: Washington has thrown 14.2 innings recently with a 4.22 ERA, Toronto 15.2 innings at 4.17, and neither side has a clear edge there.

Put it all together and Washington has a slight edge in the standings, but the season series is even and Yesavage's rising velocity hasn't translated into better recent results, while Littell has actually been trending better, so this doesn't look like a game where either side is clearly favored.