[Aug 5, 2026 (Wed)] MLB Analysis Dodgers vs Cubs Preview - BeaverStats

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Quick preview of Dodgers vs Cubs (Aug 5, 2026 (Wed)).

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Dodgers vs Cubs (08.05 09:05, Wrigley Field)

Starters: Tarik Skubal (Dodgers) / Javier Assad (Cubs)

Start with the standings and the Dodgers clearly sit in the better tier, sporting a 69-44 record (.611, second in the NL) against the Cubs' 64-49 mark (.567, fourth). What stands out is that LA's road winning percentage actually climbs to 63%, so this isn't a team that only wins at home. Still, the recent vibe cuts against the raw numbers: the Dodgers are riding a four-game losing streak while the Cubs have won their last game, so the season-long gap and the current momentum are pointing in opposite directions.

The head-to-head series only sharpens that contrast. Back in late April the Dodgers took two of three meetings by lopsided scores (12-4 and 6-0, with the lone loss coming 4-6), but last night's series opener flipped the script entirely — the Cubs blew the Dodgers out 10-5. So the early-season edge has been completely reversed in the most recent meeting, and which version of this matchup shows up tonight is worth watching.

On the mound, velocity trends tell two different stories. Skubal's average fastball has sat in a tight 96.3-to-96.7 band over his last five starts (96.3, 96.7, 96.6, 96.3, 95.8), with only a slight dip in his most recent outing — nothing that reads as a red flag, and still elite velocity by any measure. Assad, by contrast, has bounced around in the low-to-mid 90s (93.6, 92.8, 94.3, 93.6, 94.1), ticking back up in his last start, but he was never a velocity-driven arm to begin with — he leans on command and a sinker, so location matters more than raw gas for him.

Looking at full-season numbers, Skubal's 2.79 ERA is backed up (and then some) by a 2.59 FIP, meaning the peripherals actually support an ace-level season rather than just a good ERA. Assad's 3.75 ERA, on the other hand, comes with a 4.81 FIP, so his underlying numbers haven't quite matched the surface results — the substance behind the ERA is a bit softer than it looks.

Narrowing to the last five starts widens that gap even further. Skubal has struck out 41 over 31 innings, dropping his ERA to 2.03 and his FIP all the way to 1.54 — an even sharper form than his season line. Assad has trimmed his ERA to 1.50 over 18 innings, but his FIP sits at 3.64, suggesting some batted-ball luck propped up those recent results rather than a genuine step forward. On current form, Skubal is clearly the sharper of the two.

Head-to-head starter history against today's opponent should be treated as background noise more than signal. Assad has faced the Dodgers exactly once this season (April 26), and it went badly — 2.1 innings, 7 hits, 6 earned runs, a 23.14 ERA line — but that's a single start, so it's not fair to read it as a real weakness against LA. Skubal, meanwhile, has no recorded starts against the Cubs this season, so this is effectively a first meeting with nothing to draw on.

Turning to the lineups, the first thing worth flagging is that neither side's batting order is confirmed yet — both are showing as projected lineups, so there's still room for last-minute changes before first pitch.

With that caveat in place, the matchup splits are worth a look. The Cubs hitters have no recorded at-bats against Skubal specifically, so it's more useful to lean on their season-long numbers against lefties: Carson Kelly (.322/.419/.556, 170 wRC+) and Seiya Suzuki (.319 average, .585 slugging, also 170 wRC+) have handled left-handed pitching well, and Nico Hoerner (.297) and Pete Crow-Armstrong (.280, 144 wRC+) have also held up fine. Ian Happ (.158, 46 wRC+) and Dansby Swanson (.220, 79 wRC+), though, drop off sharply against lefties, and that could be a real vulnerability against Skubal tonight. On the Dodgers' side, the individual numbers against Assad are almost all built on zero-to-two at-bats, so they're essentially noise; the more reliable read is their production against right-handers overall, where Freddie Freeman (.331/.405/.530, 164 wRC+) and Shohei Ohtani (.292/.416/.527, 166 wRC+) both stand out, Tommy Edman is scorching in a smaller sample (.325), and Max Muncy's .492 slugging shows his power is very much alive against right-handed pitching. One surprise: Kyle Tucker, typically an elite bat, is hitting just .230 (97 wRC+) against right-handers this season.

Comparing season-long team batting average to the last five games shows two teams trending in opposite directions. The Cubs have actually cooled off, dropping from a .248 team average on the season to .236 over their last five games. The Dodgers are the opposite story — up from a .267 season average to a scorching .308 over their last five. That suggests the four-game skid probably isn't about the bats going cold; something else is likely driving it.

That something else looks like the bullpen. The Dodgers' relief corps has posted a rough 6.38 ERA recently, and the workload numbers back up the concern — 11 innings across eight different relievers in their sample, a sign of a pen being leaned on heavily. The Cubs' bullpen, by comparison, has been sharp at a 1.71 recent ERA, using fewer innings (8) and fewer arms (6), which points to a fresher, more stable relief group. Even if Skubal wins the starter matchup, that bullpen gap could end up mattering a lot if this game is still close in the middle-to-late innings.

In summary, if you're going purely off the standings and Skubal's dominant recent form, the weight leans toward the Dodgers tonight. But the four-game losing streak — capped by getting blown out by this same Cubs team just last night — plus a bullpen ERA pushing into the 6s are real red flags, and the Cubs bring a stable bullpen along with a middle order that handles left-handed pitching well. It's hard to call this one decisively either way; expect a competitive, closely fought game.