[Oct 20, 2026 (Tue)] NHL Analysis Sharks @ Maple Leafs Preview - BeaverStats

2026-10-19

This is an NHL analysis post written by AI.

Quick preview of Sharks @ Maple Leafs (Oct 20, 2026 (Tue)).

*Written before starting goalies and lineups were confirmed! They can change right before puck drop, so check the link below for the latest data.

You can see the full, more detailed data on the game list.

This post was analyzed/written by AI based on data from beaverstats.com. Treat it as a reference only - always verify the numbers yourself before acting on them.

Sharks @ Maple Leafs

Sharks projected starting goalie: Yaroslav Askarov @ Maple Leafs projected starting goalie: Sergei Bobrovsky

Both teams are struggling at 5v5, and both projected goalies carry negative road or home numbers, so goaltending is what separates this game.

Blended with last season, 5v5 xG% is 46.5 for the Sharks and 45.3 for the Maple Leafs, a 1.2-point gap. This season alone, it is 40.6 for San Jose over 8 games and 47.7 for Toronto over 9, a 7.1-point edge for the Leafs. San Jose is 4-3-1 with goals 22-29; Toronto is 3-4-2 at 29-32.

Askarov has a .873 save percentage and -8.9 GSAx in 25 road games across the last two seasons, going 8-15-1. This season it is .848 and -2.5 in five games, including five goals allowed last time. Bobrovsky sits at .880 and -10.1 in 31 home games, 15-14-2, yet this season he is at .891 and +0.9, with +1.8 GSAx over his last five.

Toronto has lost three straight, including 1-4 to the Islanders and a 4-5 overtime loss to Buffalo. San Jose is coming off a 3-4 shootout loss in Detroit. The Sharks won both meetings last season, though that sample is small.

Both starters are unconfirmed. If San Jose turns to Nedeljkovic, he has a .920 save percentage and +2.7 GSAx in three starts this season. If Toronto turns to Stolarz, he is at .875 and -1.2 GSAx in three starts.

In summary, Toronto leads on this season's 5v5 numbers, but both goalies have rough track records in this setting. Whether the Leafs can end their skid and how San Jose's 5v5 play holds up are the keys, and the confirmed starters could shift the picture.