[Oct 21, 2026 (Wed)] NHL Analysis Ducks @ Islanders Preview - BeaverStats

This is an NHL analysis post written by AI.

Quick preview of Ducks @ Islanders (Oct 21, 2026 (Wed)).

*Written before starting goalies and lineups were confirmed! They can change right before puck drop, so check the link below for the latest data.

You can see the full, more detailed data on the game list.

This post was analyzed/written by AI based on data from beaverstats.com. Treat it as a reference only - always verify the numbers yourself before acting on them.

Ducks @ Islanders

Ducks confirmed starting goalie: Lukas Dostal @ Islanders projected starting goalie: Ilya Sorokin

The 5v5 gap is small, so this game may turn on the goalies' recent form and the Ducks' back-to-back.

Early in the season, blending in last year's data, 5v5 xG% favors the Ducks 50.8 to 48.4. This season alone, it flips to Islanders 48.9, Ducks 47.4 over eight games each. The Ducks are 4-4 with goals 24-26 (5v5: 14-17). The Islanders are 4-3-1 with goals 24-18 (5v5: 16-9).

The goalie gap is wider. Dostal on the road over 29 games: .900 SV%, +8.8 GSAx. This season: .882, +0.3 GSAx in six starts, with -0.1 over his last five and four goals allowed last time. Sorokin at home over 29 games: .904, +9.2 GSAx. This season: .940, +7.6 GSAx in six starts, +6.9 over his last five, and one goal allowed last time.

The Ducks have lost three straight, most recently 5-2 at the Rangers, and played the night before. The Islanders won 4-1 at Toronto. In the two meetings, the Ducks won 5-1 in March and lost 5-2 in December.

If this changes: Sorokin is only projected. If Semyon Varlamov starts, the picture shifts. He has a .905 SV% and +2.7 GSAx in two games this season, and +0.0 GSAx at home. That is well short of Sorokin's +7.6.

In summary, the 5v5 numbers split depending on the sample, so the teams look close. With Sorokin, his recent form and Anaheim's streak and back-to-back favor New York. Whether he starts is the key.