[Oct 21, 2026 (Wed)] NHL Analysis Bruins @ Stars Preview - BeaverStats

2026-10-20

This is an NHL analysis post written by AI.

Quick preview of Bruins @ Stars (Oct 21, 2026 (Wed)).

*Written before starting goalies and lineups were confirmed! They can change right before puck drop, so check the link below for the latest data.

You can see the full, more detailed data on the game list.

This post was analyzed/written by AI based on data from beaverstats.com. Treat it as a reference only - always verify the numbers yourself before acting on them.

Bruins @ Stars

Bruins projected starting goalie: Jeremy Swayman @ Stars projected starting goalie: Jake Oettinger

Boston has the better 5v5 numbers this season, but Oettinger's +8.6 GSAx over his last five games decides how much of that edge survives.

Combining last season with this one, 5v5 xG% is 48.1 for the Bruins and 50.8 for the Stars, a +2.7 point edge for Dallas. This season alone it flips: Boston 51.7 over 9 games, Dallas 48.6 over 8, a gap of -3.1 points. Boston is 7-2-0 with a 34-19 goal difference (22-11 at 5v5). Dallas is 4-3-1 at 20-13 (14-7 at 5v5).

Both goalies are hot. Swayman has a .934 SV% and +7.2 GSAx in seven games this season, and +4.1 GSAx over his last five. Oettinger has a .952 SV% and +8.7 GSAx in six games, and +8.6 over his last five, with a shutout last time out. Away, Swayman is .900 with +4.3 GSAx across 30 games over two seasons. At home, Oettinger is .903 with +4.8 across 33.

Boston has won five straight, most recently 4-1 at Los Angeles. Dallas has won two straight after a 4-0 win at Chicago. Boston won 6-3 and lost 2-6 in the two meetings last season, a small sample.

Neither goalie is confirmed. If DiPietro starts for Boston, he has +0.9 GSAx in two games this season. If DeSmith starts for Dallas, he has +0.8 GSAx in two games and +3.3 GSAx at home. Boston's 30.0% power play also faces Dallas's 93.8% penalty kill.

In summary, Boston has the 5v5 edge this season, but Oettinger's form can erase much of it. The key is which goalie slips first and whether Boston's power play can break Dallas's penalty kill.