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[Oct 15, 2026 (Thu)] NHL Analysis Canadiens @ Capitals Preview - BeaverStats

2026-10-14

This is an NHL analysis post written by AI.

Quick preview of Canadiens @ Capitals (Oct 15, 2026 (Thu)).

*Written before starting goalies and lineups were confirmed! They can change right before puck drop, so check the link below for the latest data.

You can see the full, more detailed data on the game list.

This post was analyzed/written by AI based on data from beaverstats.com. Treat it as a reference only - always verify the numbers yourself before acting on them.

Canadiens @ Capitals

Canadiens confirmed starting goalie: Jakub Dobes @ Capitals projected starting goalie: Charlie Lindgren

The team numbers are nearly identical, so this game turns on whether Dobes, at -6.2 GSAx over his last five, can hold up.

Blended with last season, 5v5 xG% is 49.7 for the Canadiens and 49.5 for the Capitals. This season alone it is 52.2 against 49.3. Montreal is 3-2-1 with goals 19-22 and 5v5 goals 10-13. Washington is 3-3 with goals 19-18 and 5v5 goals 16-13. Two of Montreal's recent wins came in extra time, so the record may be inflated.

Dobes is at .898 SV% and -0.7 GSAx over 22 road games, 13-4-5 as a starter. This season he is .856 and -3.8 GSAx in three games, and he allowed five last time out. Lindgren is .879 and -1.8 GSAx in seven home games, 4-2 as a starter. His one start this season was .931 and +1.1 GSAx, though a loss. Over the last five, Lindgren is at -2.3 GSAx.

Montreal has won two straight, both in shootouts. Washington has lost two straight. Both teams are on the second night of a back-to-back. Montreal won the last meeting 6-2 on Feb. 28.

Washington's starter isn't confirmed. If Logan Thompson goes instead of Lindgren, he is 3-2 with a .904 SV% and +2.6 GSAx this season, and +30.1 GSAx at home. That would tilt the goaltending edge toward Washington.

In summary, the 5v5 numbers leave little separating these teams. Whether Dobes can cut down the goals against on a back-to-back is the key. Washington's goaltending outlook depends on who starts.