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[Oct 16, 2026 (Fri)] NHL Analysis Kraken @ Lightning Preview - BeaverStats

2026-10-15

This is an NHL analysis post written by AI.

Quick preview of Kraken @ Lightning (Oct 16, 2026 (Fri)).

*Written before starting goalies and lineups were confirmed! They can change right before puck drop, so check the link below for the latest data.

You can see the full, more detailed data on the game list.

This post was analyzed/written by AI based on data from beaverstats.com. Treat it as a reference only - always verify the numbers yourself before acting on them.

Kraken @ Lightning

Kraken projected starting goalie: Joey Daccord @ Lightning projected starting goalie: Andrei Vasilevskiy

Tampa Bay owns the underlying play and Seattle owns the results, so Vasilevskiy's home track record versus his current-season form may decide this one.

In 5v5 xG%, the Lightning sit at 54.4 and the Kraken at 46.0, an 8.4-point gap. That blends last season with this one, and this season alone it is 57.8 to 45.9, an 11.9-point gap. The records point the other way: Seattle is 5-2 with a 29-19 goal difference (23-12 at 5v5), Tampa Bay 4-2 with 17-16 (12-11 at 5v5).

Vasilevskiy's home numbers over the last two seasons are extreme: 35 games, .913 SV%, +10.8 GSAx, 25-9-1. This season it is .886 and -0.4 GSAx in 5 games, with -0.5 over his last five and 3 goals allowed last time out. Daccord is .903 and -0.1 GSAx in 24 road games, and .913 with +1.0 GSAx in 4 starts this year, +1.2 over his last five.

Seattle has won 3 straight, most recently 3-2 in a shootout at Philadelphia. Tampa Bay lost 4-1 at the Rangers. Seattle won the latest meeting 4-3 in overtime.

If Hildeby starts for Tampa Bay, he is .944 with +1.0 GSAx in his one start this season, and +5.3 GSAx at home. If Grubauer starts for Seattle, he is .918 with +3.2 GSAx in 4 games this season, and +5.9 GSAx on the road.

In summary, the shot-quality edge sits with Tampa Bay, while Seattle arrives with a three-game winning streak. Whether Vasilevskiy plays to his home history or his current form is the key.