[Oct 18, 2026 (Sun)] NHL Analysis Canucks @ Lightning Preview - BeaverStats

This is an NHL analysis post written by AI.

Quick preview of Canucks @ Lightning (Oct 18, 2026 (Sun)).

*Written before starting goalies and lineups were confirmed! They can change right before puck drop, so check the link below for the latest data.

You can see the full, more detailed data on the game list.

This post was analyzed/written by AI based on data from beaverstats.com. Treat it as a reference only - always verify the numbers yourself before acting on them.

Canucks @ Lightning Canucks projected starting goalie: Kevin Lankinen @ Lightning projected starting goalie: Andrei Vasilevskiy

The gap between Lankinen, at -15.7 GSAx on the road for a Canucks team on a five-game losing streak, and Vasilevskiy, at +10.8 GSAx at home, is what decides this game.

Early in the season, blending in last year, 5v5 xG% is 54.3 for the Lightning and 42.5 for the Canucks, an 11.8-point gap. This season alone it is 55.7 to 37.8, or 17.8 points. Tampa Bay is 5-2 with goals 21-19. Vancouver is 2-6-1 with goals 28-41, and its PK sits at 50.0%.

Lankinen's road numbers (last season plus this one) are a .873 SV%, -15.7 GSAx and an 8-13-3 record in 26 games. This season he has a .786 SV% and -11.8 GSAx, with -10.5 GSAx over his last five and six goals allowed last time out. Vasilevskiy's home numbers are a .912 SV%, +10.8 GSAx and 26-9-1 in 36 games. This season he is at -0.3 GSAx but +1.1 over his last five.

Vancouver has lost five straight, scoring two goals or fewer each time, most recently a 3-2 overtime loss at Florida. Tampa Bay beat Seattle 4-3 in overtime for its first win in a row. Vancouver lost 6-2 in March in the last meeting, a small sample.

If the starters change, Vancouver's Leevi Meriläinen has a .925 SV% and +3.0 GSAx in six games this season, but -9.2 GSAx on the road. Tampa Bay's Dennis Hildeby has a .944 SV% and +1.0 GSAx in one start, and +5.3 GSAx at home.

In summary, the 5v5 numbers and the goaltending both lean toward Tampa Bay. Vancouver's offense has been held to two goals or fewer, so who starts and how many goals they prevent is the key.