[Oct 21, 2026 (Wed)] NHL Analysis Lightning @ Golden Knights Preview - BeaverStats

This is an NHL analysis post written by AI.

Quick preview of Lightning @ Golden Knights (Oct 21, 2026 (Wed)).

*Written before starting goalies and lineups were confirmed! They can change right before puck drop, so check the link below for the latest data.

You can see the full, more detailed data on the game list.

This post was analyzed/written by AI based on data from beaverstats.com. Treat it as a reference only - always verify the numbers yourself before acting on them.

Lightning @ Golden Knights

Lightning projected starting goalie: Andrei Vasilevskiy @ Golden Knights projected starting goalie: Carter Hart

This game turns on whether Vasilevskiy's +10.5 road GSAx or Vegas's home scoring cracks first.

At 5v5 the teams are close. Blending last season with this one, xG% is 54.5 for Tampa Bay and 54.9 for Vegas, but this season alone it is 57.5 to 55.1 in the Lightning's favor. Vegas is 8-2 with a 42-24 goal difference, while Tampa Bay is 6-2 at 25-21.

In goal, Vasilevskiy has a .908 SV% and +10.5 GSAx over 28 road games across two seasons, but this year he sits at .886 and -0.3 GSAx. Hart is .896 with -1.5 GSAx in 13 home games, though this season he is at .911 and +1.2.

Vegas has won three straight, including 6-2 wins over Pittsburgh and Calgary. Tampa Bay has won two in a row after a 1-4 loss to the Rangers. The Lightning won both meetings last season.

Neither goalie is confirmed. If Hildeby starts, he is 2-0 this season with a .920 SV%. If Adin Hill starts, he is 4-0 but carries -4.4 home GSAx.

In summary, this is a close 5v5 matchup where Vegas has the scoring edge. The key is whether Vasilevskiy's road record holds and whether Hart can keep up his current form.