[Oct 22, 2026 (Thu)] NHL Analysis Panthers @ Senators Preview - BeaverStats

2026-10-21

This is an NHL analysis post written by AI.

Quick preview of Panthers @ Senators (Oct 22, 2026 (Thu)).

*Written before starting goalies and lineups were confirmed! They can change right before puck drop, so check the link below for the latest data.

You can see the full, more detailed data on the game list.

This post was analyzed/written by AI based on data from beaverstats.com. Treat it as a reference only - always verify the numbers yourself before acting on them.

Panthers @ Senators

Panthers projected starting goalie: Akira Schmid @ Senators projected starting goalie: Linus Ullmark

Florida has the better team numbers this season, but in net Ullmark's hot run meets Schmid's negative one.

Combined with last season, Ottawa leads 5v5 xG% 54.3 to 51.0, a 3.3-point home edge. This season alone it flips: Florida 57.0, Ottawa 47.2 over nine games, a -9.8 gap for the home side. The Panthers are 5-2-2 with a 30-25 goal differential (16-14 at 5v5). The Senators are 6-3 at 24-23 (14-14 at 5v5).

The goalie gap is wider. Schmid has a .892 SV% and -2.8 GSAx in 20 road games, and this season a .878 SV% and -1.4 GSAx in four starts. His last five games total -3.1 GSAx. Ullmark has a .911 SV% and +2.5 GSAx in 27 home games, and this season a .945 SV% and +7.4 GSAx in seven games (6-1). His last five total +4.7.

Florida has won three straight, including 8-3 over Seattle on Oct. 18. Ottawa lost 1-3 at Philadelphia in its last game. Florida won three of the last four head-to-head games, a small sample.

Both starters are still projected. If Markstrom replaces Schmid, he has a .897 SV% and -0.1 GSAx this season, but -9.0 GSAx on the road. If Ersson replaces Ullmark, he has a .829 SV% and -4.5 GSAx in three games this season and -7.8 GSAx at home. That would shrink Ottawa's goalie edge considerably.

In summary, the team numbers lean Florida this season, while the goalie matchup favors Ottawa if Ullmark starts. Which trend shows up first, and who is confirmed in net, is the key.