[Oct 15, 2026 (Thu)] NHL Analysis Stars @ Avalanche Preview - BeaverStats

2026-10-14

This is an NHL analysis post written by AI.

Quick preview of Stars @ Avalanche (Oct 15, 2026 (Thu)).

*Written before starting goalies and lineups were confirmed! They can change right before puck drop, so check the link below for the latest data.

You can see the full, more detailed data on the game list.

This post was analyzed/written by AI based on data from beaverstats.com. Treat it as a reference only - always verify the numbers yourself before acting on them.

Stars @ Avalanche

Stars confirmed starting goalie: Casey DeSmith @ Avalanche projected starting goalie: Scott Wedgewood

The Avalanche have the edge at 5v5, but on the second night of a back-to-back for both teams, the goalies decide this game.

On 5v5 xG% (last season combined with this one), Colorado sits at 56.8 and Dallas at 50.9, a 5.9-point gap. It is early in the season, and this season alone the gap shrinks to 52.9 vs 50.8. The Avalanche are 4-2 with a 29-19 goal differential (24-12 at 5v5). The Stars are 2-3-1 at 13-11 (10-5 at 5v5).

DeSmith is confirmed for Dallas. On the road over the last two seasons he has a .912 SV%, +6.4 GSAx and a 9-3-6 record in 19 games. This season he has one game at .923 and +0.4 GSAx. His last five games total +0.9 GSAx, and he allowed two in his latest. Wedgewood is projected for Colorado. At home he has a .920 SV%, +5.1 GSAx and a 15-2-3 record in 22 games. This season he has one game at .897 and -0.2 GSAx. His last five total +5.9 GSAx, though he allowed three last time.

Both teams played last night, when Colorado won 3-2 in Dallas. The Stars have lost two straight, including a 2-1 shootout loss in Pittsburgh. The Avalanche have won one straight after a 6-3 loss to Toronto.

If Mackenzie Blackwood starts instead of Wedgewood, the picture changes. He has a .879 SV%, -3.1 GSAx and a 3-2 record in five starts this season, and his home GSAx is -6.4. Colorado would lose its goaltending advantage and be left with only the 5v5 edge.

In summary, Colorado leads on 5v5 play and Wedgewood's recent form, though this season's gap is small. Whether Wedgewood actually starts is the key. The back-to-back affects both sides equally.